Will SA ever have the capable state it dreams of, or should we reconcile ourselves to a weak state in perpetuity? How should the public and private sectors behave if that is the lot we must live with?
The “lost years” of the Zuma presidency were far from inert. A weak, compliant, sycophantic civil service is exactly what Jacob Zuma and his conspirators desired and, with some notable exceptions, what they got. Droves of experienced public servants were either hounded out or gave up in frustration.
What realistic chance is there of restoring it? The Mbeki-era government that delivered an economy growing more than 5% between 2003 and 2008 was in retrospect a dream team. Key departments from minerals & energy to the Treasury were led by gifted women and men who managed to walk a tight line of transforming the economy while keeping it growing.
The balancing act required co-ordination across the government to deliver policy certainty that provided both carrot and stick to the private sector. This was helped by a tailwind of the commodity price cycle, but we were able to ride it thanks to a somewhat clean and efficient government delivering an unambiguous policy agenda.
It was found in an Institute of Race Relations (IRR) study in 2017 that 216 directors-general, in 32 departments, were suspended, removed or shifted between 2009 and 2017. As a result, President Cyril Ramaphosa has inherited a huge skills deficit from cabinet down. It took ages for him to find someone willing to take on the finance minister role, and Tito Mboweni promised to keep the seat warm only temporarily. (Mboweni seems since to have developed a taste and ambition for the role, and long may he continue.)
I suspect the story would be quite different were the department led by someone of the calibre of former director-general Mavuso Msimang, who was hounded out during the Zuma years
The department of public service & administration advertises more than 300 senior civil service roles per week. Even with salaries 60% higher in real terms than those paid to Mbeki-era public servants, these are a battle to fill. The same problem has dogged state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which have struggled to fill management roles.
The consequences are clear in the challenges the presidency and cabinet face in getting departments to implement policy. The department of home affairs struggled to make straightforward changes to the tourism visa regime that Ramaphosa had asked for early in his presidency, particularly in dropping the birth certificate requirement for foreign children entering the country. It took until November 2019 for the government to make it official, despite announcements first being made in early 2018. One still hears anecdotes of tourists battling at border posts with intransigent officials seemingly unaware of the rules.
A new regime for skilled visas remains frustratingly dogged by delays despite promises from the president. I suspect the story would be quite different were the department led by someone of the calibre of former director-general Mavuso Msimang, who was hounded out during the Zuma years.
Similarly, promises of a new era of policy certainty in mining have not yet been delivered. Key issues such as the Mining Charter and legislative amendments continue to be dogged by delays and stand-offs with the industry. One craves someone such as Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, who shepherded through the new-order mining rights reforms of the Mbeki era while charming the industry into acceptance. And let’s not even mention the farce over energy policy.
Plotting downfall
These prominent examples are the tip of the iceberg of public service dysfunction. Consider that just 26% of provincial and national government entities and just 8% of municipalities received a clean audit, according to the auditor-general’s latest reports. Capacity is dire.
Ramaphosa has to somehow rebuild the public service with a dysfunctional Luthuli House that half the time seems to be plotting his downfall. We must temper expectations of what is possible.
The first three cabinets of the democratic era, and the public service that was built by them, represented the best people that a strong ANC could draw on by deploying a vast amount of social capital. But the party is now weak and riven by factionalism. The “clever blacks” that Zuma ridiculed have little interest in putting their skills back into the government.
Ramaphosa must focus his limited talent pool on policy and implementation that delivers the biggest bang for the buck economically. Highly complex reform efforts that depend on an eminently capable state — the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme is an obvious example — should be put on the back-burner.
Policy should focus on setting the rules for the private sector and letting it bring skills to the table, rather than trying to deliver all and sundry itself. He is running a ship that cannot attract skilled sailors. It should be pointed at the calmest waters.
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