This week’s medium-term budget policy statement is likely to put the governing ANC on a collision course with both its alliance partners and South Africans who have borne the brunt of mismanagement and corruption.
Critically, this comes just about a year before SA goes to the polls, in which trade union federation Cosatu in particular is slated to play a critical role in mobilising supporters for the governing party. It is therefore no small issue that the budget policy statement left an even more sour taste than usual in the mouths of many.
It has already been a shockingly difficult year for everyone, not least for many of the more than 1.2-million public servants who have worked at the coalface of combating the pandemic and ensuring the regulations imposed during the lockdown were adhered to.
On a macro scale, the lockdown imposed to curb the spread of Covid-19 further damaged an already weak economy, with millions of jobs lost, increasing hopelessness and undermining trust that government has citizens’ best interests at heart.
It was therefore important that the medium-term budget policy statement, though it was always going to be a difficult juggling act for the government, would give at least a smidgen of hope that SA’s remaining money would be spent on the right issues. But it seems government has put saving the embattled SAA ahead of saving SA.
Finance minister Tito Mboweni announced on Wednesday that R10.5bn would be allocated to implement the national carrier’s business rescue plan, and that this would be funded through reductions to the baselines of national departments, public entities and conditional grants.
A table in the budget document showed just where this money was coming from — 41 departments, including police, justice, education and transport.
One could understand if government was reprioritising funds to improve service delivery, better people’s lives or boost the fight against violent crime and corruption. But it is difficult to justify billions of rand being shifted to save an airline that hasn’t been profitable for almost 10 years.
One of the biggest losers in the reprioritisation of funds is the police service, which is set to lose almost R1.2bn to SAA, while the justice department is giving up almost R195m.
The madness in shifting money to what has been called a “vanity project”, away from law enforcement — which the ANC says is a priority — cannot be overstated.
Law-enforcement agencies such as the Hawks, which fall under the police, and the National Prosecuting Authority, which falls under justice — have been complaining about a lack of resources to do their jobs quickly and efficiently.
The cuts come as the ANC faces pressure over corruption, not least because of the scandals relating to Covid-19 tenders. While there has been frustration about the speed of law enforcement, the last few weeks have seen an increase in movement as agencies swoop and arrests are made.
It is worth remembering that state-owned entities such as SAA are in the state they are in because of the looting spree. So if the ANC government wants us to take it seriously when it comes to fighting corruption, it needs to ensure the money is there to fund the battle.
The party is going to have to work hard next year to convince the electorate that it is serious about turning the corner on corruption. But picking SAA over law enforcement, among other things, is not the only bind the budget has put the ANC in.
In an unprecedented move the Treasury has proposed that there must be a wage freeze for the next three years for public servants, to support fiscal consolidation. Labour has been up in arms since Mboweni pencilled in cuts to the wage bill in February, and the state simply refused to pay increases provided for this financial year.
That is now subject to a court battle. But with a new round of negotiations looming the Treasury proposal adds fuel to the fire of a likely public sector strike, which neither SA nor government can afford.
Politically this is a conundrum for the government. The ANC has traditionally relied on trade union members for support, but this dispute makes it unconscionable for unionists to say the ANC has workers’ best interests at heart.
The SA Democratic Teachers’ Union (Sadtu) and the National Education, Health and Allied Workers’ Union (Nehawu), the largest and third-largest public sector unions respectively, which are both affiliated to ANC ally Cosatu, have already said their support for the governing party is not cast in stone. Cosatu has in turn accused government of bullying workers and treating them as glorified slaves.
It will be interesting as we edge closer to the elections to see whether the ANC will buckle under the pressure and give in to the unions, and whether its other alliance partner, the SACP, will join hands with workers to increase the pressure.
It also remains to be seen whether Ramaphosa, who was elected ANC president with the support of Cosatu, will step in and save the day for the unions, or whether he will hold the line and risk alienating a constituency.
Either way the ANC is in a bind that could have electoral consequences and within which there seems little room for manoeuvre to produce an outcome that will keep everyone happy.
• Quintal is political editor.
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