Just like the charging of former president Jacob Zuma with corruption, the arrest of secretary-general Ace Magashule is a big moment for the ANC. And as it was with the fight over Zuma, the reverberations will be felt through the corridors of power, right through provincial administrations and the Union Buildings, as ANC factions rearrange, regroup and strategise around the new set of dynamics that the Magashule matter will put into play.
So, unfortunately, just as President Cyril Ramaphosa hopes to find a way back to stability after the pandemic, ANC politics will again be chaotic and disruptive.
But this is not a replay of 2005. Zuma, we know, built his campaign for the presidency on his status as a persecuted victim facing politically motivated charges from powerful enemies. He had a huge support base in KwaZulu-Natal among whom he was revered. His court appearances were stirring and powerful; he was backed by many leaders of stature in the movement, who were eager to share the podium with him.
While Magashule’s court rally was large, it was a poor imitation. While ANC members were bussed in from various parts of the country and obliged by burning T-shirts with the image of Ramaphosa, the small handful of recognisable faces that turned out to support him were a sad and motley crew with doubtful moral and political standing. Some of the crowd interviewed had no idea what they were doing there.
It seems unlikely then that Magashule could split the ANC or build a rebellion to unseat Ramaphosa. The bigger significance of the Magashule disruption is that it has opened up the game for new political manoeuvres and a new alliance of the factions.
The main movers are ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile and ANC deputy president DD Mabuza. It was their alliance at the ANC Nasrec conference that delivered Ramaphosa the ANC presidency and landed positions for themselves in the top six. That alliance remains intact.
While Mabuza is Mpumalanga’s most powerful politician, Mashatile is Gauteng’s. Even though Mashatile is no longer in the Gauteng provincial executive he holds sway over the ANC. And, the incident in which Gauteng premier David Makhura was forced by the ANC to remove health MEC Bandile Masuku before he was ready, made it clear enough that it is the ANC that is in charge, even when it comes to executive appointments.
In some provinces, there are also shifts in alignments and a similar growing impatience among ANC leaders for the incumbents to move on, especially where they are deemed not to have been co-operating adequately with the ANC.
Mashatile has, over the past six months, been given a public profile boost by Luthuli House. For instance, he spoke at a Chatham House event on the SA economy in May as well as a Progressive Business Forum webinar on reviving the economy. He has also done several featured television interviews, again positioned as a spokesperson on the economy.
As it is Magashule, along with a host of others who have been displaced from government — Tony Yengeni, Nomvula Mokonyane and Malusi Gigaba, and deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte — who control Luthuli House, it is interesting that Mashatile has been given so much profile, a possible sign of changing alignments.
As the ANC’s half-term conference — the national general council — draws closer, control of Luthuli house will be incredibly important. In his speech outside the court, Magashule told the crowd that the council will be held in May, a veiled inference that, just like Zuma did in 2005, Magashule will take problems there should anyone try to remove him from his position.
In ANC gatherings, even at the national general council where voting does not happen, numbers of branch delegates count for everything. The administrator of the numbers is the secretary-general’s office. The masters of manipulation and the creators of branches in the past have been Magashule and Mabuza.
By contrast, in the face of all this manoeuvring, Ramaphosa seems behind the game. His presence in Luthuli House is small — his office is headed by Sibongile Besani, a former Free State provincial secretary who does not command much attention, either inside or outside the ANC.
Unlike Mashatile, Mabusa and Magashule, who are constantly seeking new alliances, Ramaphosa — though he will not be rebelled against by the ANC’s national executive committee or even the national general council — is several moves behind as the new alliances take shape.
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