Long before the chaotic scenes in the US capital this week, commentators had noted how the Covid-19 outbreak had exposed the fatal flaws in the populist wave of recent years.
In contrast to the likes of Angela Merkel in Germany or Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand, Donald Trump in the US, Boris Johnson in the UK and Brazil’s far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro had overseen catastrophic failures that had seen their countries emerge as world leaders both in terms of infections and deaths. Catchy slogans and misleading social media campaigns can win elections, but aren’t necessarily useful for governing.
Before the outbreak of the pandemic, the consensus view was that a booming economy maintained by ultra easy monetary policy from the Federal Reserve would be enough to give Trump a second term. If Trump’s impending departure marks the beginning of the end for the dominance of populist leaders in Western democracies — they are still very much a powerful force in countries such as Poland and Hungary — he has made sure he will go out with something of a bang.
Despite the drama, the Trump era may ultimately turn out to be nothing more than a blip for future historians. Others have noted that, for impact and lasting legacy of populism, the UK will be the place to study. The US will in just over a week, if not sooner, have a new president who will start reversing some of Trump’s policies. That doesn’t mean it’s a given that Joe Biden can put the genie back in the bottle and stop the slide to authoritarianism, despite the failure of Trump’s attempted coup.
On the other hand, Brexit and its effects will shape the UK and its place in the world for decades to come. It was a thing to see the UK prime minister pictured beaming, arms in the air, proclaiming victory and a bright future as the country finally exited the world’s biggest and richest trading bloc.
It just so happened that at this time, I was reading a fascinating book by Anne Applebaum, the historian of communism.
Twilight of Democracy: The Failure of Politics and the Parting of Friends, which was published in the middle of 2020, looks into the phenomenon that brought Trump & Co to power. From Viktor Orbán in Hungary to the leaders of the Vox party in Spain, she looks at some of the techniques of manipulation and outright lies that have shaken established democracies in recent years.
Johnson gaslighting the UK, while getting a free pass from the BBC, was a striking example of a new world order in which objective facts and truths increasingly count for little.
He had just overseen an agreement that has left Northern Ireland in the EU customs unions. In addition to the obvious and immediate threat to the integrity and unity of the UK, it also stores another problem in the form of a disillusioned Scotland that was taken out of the EU despite choosing to remain.
On trade, he settled for a deal that favours the other side. He agreed to “robust level playing field” conditions that mean the UK will broadly follow EU regulations. The free trade agreement was structured to the advantage of the EU, covering goods in which it has a trade surplus.
Trade and services where the UK was the dominant country in Europe with London as its financial capital, were left out. Even the UK government’s own website is thin on the benefits of Brexit.
That in itself is of no interest to SA readers. What should interest, or perhaps scare us, is that a leader in a country where the population has easy access to information, is able to sell as a win a deal that is to his nation’s disadvantage.
Even before Covid-19 SA was fertile ground for populists due to its chronic levels of unemployment and inequality, and a weak state that won’t be turning the clock on that any time soon. From London to Madrid, the populist truth makers have shown great skill in consolidating complaints from disparate groups into something resembling a political movement.
That’s not to say the book doesn’t have weaknesses. For one thing Applebaum — though she doesn’t hide it — belongs to a school of thought that sees the US as a great example and the gold standard when it comes to democracy and the rule of law.
Critics of American exceptionalism or its destructive interventions in other countries are dismissed out of hand. It’s as if she hasn’t been observing how US democracy has gone to be captured by corporate interests or the decades of voter suppression that have deprived racial minorities and poorer Americans more broadly of a stake in the system, creating the very conditions that brought about the rise of Trump.
This then leads to some wild generalisations, so that there is hardly a difference between Noam Chomsky, the Left-wing activist, and Pat Buchanan, a Right-winger who rails against modernity and the apparent marginalisation of white men.
Which is not surprising, given that Applebaum identifies herself as a Republican.
Reading the book, and trying to keep an open mind given the author isn’t someone whose politics I would endorse, it dawned upon me that the old political definitions of Left or Right are quickly losing their meaning.
In a world where a Christian pastor running for the Senate seat in conservative Georgia (in the US) can be described by his opponent as a radical socialist, the true dividing line is going to be between those who believe in democracy, the rule of law and politics as a contest between ideas, and the peddlers of misinformation who seek to divide and destroy.
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