Joe Biden is the 46th US president. But the beacon of the US’s democratic system is somewhat dimmed in the eyes of the world. True to his reality television star instinct for theatrics, as a final act of defiance outgoing president Donald Trump incited a mob to storm Congress to stall Biden’s confirmation.
From this side of the Atlantic most of us just shook our heads at the banana republic antics in the US, muttering that we thought egotistical old men refusing to leave power was supposed to be an African thing. Sarcasm aside, what does the Biden administration hold for Africa, specifically SA?
Biden was an anti-apartheid activist. In 1986 the senator from Delaware openly rallied against the Reagan administration’s policy of not getting too embroiled in SA’s domestic troubles. He said: “Dammit, we have favourites in SA. The favourites in SA are the people that are being repressed by an ugly white regime. We have favourites! Our loyalty is not to SA, it’s to South Africans. And the South Africans are majority black. They are being excoriated!”
Biden supported the ANC in exile, visited Mandela in prison and is an old friend — this personal history establishes the US-SA relationship on solid grounds. Cyril Ramaphosa was the only African president to have a call with president-elect Biden in November, which bodes well for SA-US relations, which both sides have neglected.
What is the new administration’s priority as Democrats move into the White House and now hold razor-thin majorities in both houses of Congress?
For Biden, his first task is domestic. He needs to get the pandemic under control and stimulate the economy. These are well under way. Vaccines are being rolled out and Goldman Sachs economists are projecting US GDP to grow 6.6% in 2021 on the back of Biden’s proposed $1.9-trillion stimulus package.
On international affairs, Biden is a liberal internationalist. This means he believes liberal states should work together to pursue liberal objectives, such as democratisation, even if it means intervening in domestic affairs — as was the case with apartheid SA.
Biden will reverse Trump’s America First policy and go-it-alone unilateralism in international affairs. He will seek to shore up alliances and repair relations with democratic allies across the world. Repairing relations with the EU will be important, but the priority will be the Indo-Pacific, the centre of economic growth and the great power rivalry of the 21st century.
The primary global competitor and security threat for the US is China. US-China relations are at a low point and Biden will have to strike a balance between economic prosperity and security concerns.
In the Indo-Pacific most countries are heavily dependent on trade with China and therefore want it to be economically strong. However, Indo-Pacific nations are also wary of a growing China as a security threat and need the US to provide a counterbalance. Australia is the prime example, punished through the loss of billions of dollars of trade for daring to criticise China’s handling of the coronavirus.
US-China rivalry will not be limited to the Indo-Pacific. It will play a growing part in US-SA and US-Africa engagements. The US countered China’s Belt & Road Initiative — the trillion-dollar signature policy to provide loans for infrastructure development across Eurasia to Africa — by establishing the US International Development Finance Corporation in 2018, specifically to open the taps on funding. This is a positive development as it offers African countries options and negotiation leverage.
Cognisant of the multifaceted nature of US-China rivalry and discerning between mere rhetoric and real interests, Pretoria must take advantage of our history with Biden, find that elusive balance and negotiate favourable trade agreements for SA and Africa.
• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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