Democracy works best when the people who shape the debate ask the right questions. Something new is afoot with the way Covid-19 is harming this country. But, since no-one who influences what South Africans talk about seems to have noticed, no-one is putting the scientists and the government on the spot to say why this is happening. This makes it much harder to fight the disease.
This country’s official case and death figures show Covid-19 is taking twice as many lives now as in mid-2020, the last time cases and deaths peaked. Between July 8 and 29 last year on average 11,736 cases and 185 deaths were reported each day. For a similar three-week period this month, from the 1st to the 21st, there were on average 14,615 cases and 505 deaths each day. This means more than twice as many people who test positive are losing their lives this month than in the July period.
Excess death figures, which show how many people have died of natural causes compared to previous years and may show the real number of Covid-19 deaths (more than 100,000), also show that current rates are far higher than in mid-2020. This does not square with what we are told by medical scientists and the government. They say a new variant of the virus in this country is spreading more easily between people, but that there is no evidence that it causes more severe sickness. Also, doctors and hospitals are said to be better now at treating infected patients. That should mean fewer deaths, not twice as many as six months ago.
So what is happening? One possibility is that the virus is spreading so quickly that many people are being infected who do not show in case numbers. The huge increase in deaths would be explained by an equivalent rise in cases. If this is so, it would confirm the view of scientists in other countries who argue that a virus that spreads more quickly will cause more damage and death, even if it doesn’t make its victims sicker, because it is harder to control. But this explanation works only if twice as many cases are going untested than in the middle of last year.
Another is that the new variant is more deadly than we have been told — or that the health system is now less able to save lives. Whatever the answer, the sharp rise in deaths raises uncomfortable questions about the effectiveness of testing and tracing here, whether the new variant is not deadlier than we have been told, and about the claim that hospitals are better at treating the virus.
Exactly what is wrong and what needs to be done depends on knowing why so many lives are being lost. Whatever the answer, the numbers show this country’s fight against Covid-19 is going backwards, which makes it more pressing that these questions are asked and answered.
All this comes in the week in which the country is mourning Jackson Mthembu, the minister in the presidency who lost his life to Covid-19. The grief that followed his passing testifies to the integrity he brought to the country’s public life. Mthembu deserves recognition that will survive when the current mourning ends. His family has pointed out that the best memorial would be to ensure this country does what it can to prevent the disease that claimed his life from taking many more people.
That means the national debate — politicians, media, citizens’ organisations — must honour Mthembu’s memory by waking from their slumber, asking why Covid-19 is claiming so many lives and insisting that everything be done to ensure the number of deaths begins to fall as dramatically as it has risen.
• Friedman is research professor with the humanities faculty of the University of Johannesburg.
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