There was a lot of excitement over the weekend “tea meeting” between former president Jacob Zuma and EFF leader Julius Malema. Some called it the “great fightback”; others declared it a “political realignment”.
But while it was a great media spectacle, that is really all it was. It did not tell us anything new about where we stand, and the balance of forces is still much as it was. It did sharply remind us though of the deep trouble the ANC is in as a party and how, in the absence of other credible political actors, opportunities for the EFF to punch above its weight will grow.
The ANC is a dominant party in long, slow decline, with a growing trust deficit with the electorate and diminishing electoral returns. The EFF is a splinter of the ANC, and because it is never likely to grow enormously big, is part of the ANC’s factional politics. They share ideologies and political persuasions and have an interest in the outcomes of each other’s internal contestations.
Since the start of the Ramaphosa administration, the EFF and the ANC fightback crowd (Zuma, Ace Magashule and other displaced elements) have shared growing affinity. They are united in endeavours to avoid prosecution for corruption during the Zuma era and have been particularly united in their hatred and opposition to public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan, the Treasury and the SA Reserve Bank. This is dressed up in the insincere call for radical economic transformation, which they use as a ruse for attacking good governance.
The ANC and EFF futures are intertwined. As the ANC’s decline continues, the EFF will grow in significance and power. The ANC will need the EFF to stay in power in cities, towns, provinces and possibly even nationally. This gives the EFF a vested interest in shaping and determining ANC internal politics. If it is to form coalitions with the ANC, it would like to do so with those with whom it shares the greatest affinity.
This is exactly what was happening at the Zuma-Malema tea meeting, which notably included two of the most outspoken fightback team members: Tony Yengeni and Mzwandile Masina.
With ANC provincial conferences soon to fall due or already overdue, factional battles are heating up all over the country. Some of these — the North West, where the ANC has threatened to suspend premier Job Mokgoro and is now “supervising” his work, and Gauteng, where there have been all sorts of ructions — have spilt into the public domain.
In the North West and Mpumalanga, intense lobbying between ANC factions is under way ahead of these conferences. In Gauteng, premier David Makhura is now vulnerable to early removal. Should the provincial conference not go his way and result in the election of an opponent as provincial chair, he will find himself “recalled”. His work is already closely “supervised” by the ANC provincial executive, a majority of whom oppose him, and he is at odds with the power brokers in several of the metros in the province.
In other provinces, elements of the fightback faction also remain. Though KwaZulu-Natal premier Sihle Zikalala has aligned with President Cyril Ramaphosa, powerful former Ethekwini mayor Zandile Gumede plays strongly into factional dynamics.
All of this underlines what the ANC has essentially become over the past decade or more: a broad party with an African nationalist outlook in which groups and individuals compete for power based on reciprocal interests rather than ideology.
Because of the tendency towards factionalism and shifting alliances, this makes it an incredibly difficult organisation to hold sway over for any length of time. It is permanently caught up in internal competition, if not for regional, provincial and national conferences, then for the choice of candidates for towns and cities, provinces and parliament. Foot soldiers are needed to shore up support, and benefits must accrue to supporters who are in it for personal gain. ANC unity cannot be dreamed and wished for from podiums; politics has evolved way beyond that.
Ramaphosa, who prevailed over the Nasrec factions with the thinnest of margins and due to a classic exchange of reciprocal interests with his deputy, David Mabuza, is obviously aware of how all this weakens his position. On his side, though, is that the fightback camp does not have a presidential candidate to put up against him. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma has shown no interest and no-one else stands out.
But given what the ANC essentially is, shifting alliances mean challengers could come from other quarters. Apart from Mabuza himself, ANC treasurer Paul Mashatile is known to be hungry for the job and mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe is another serious contender.
It’s a constantly changing game with little opportunity for rest, and there are lots of balls in the air.
• Paton is editor at large.
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