The World Trade Organisation (WTO) finally seems set to get a new director-general, Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. There is even a degree of optimism that the Doha round of negotiations may resume.
However, it would be disingenuous not to mention that the multilateral system, of which the WTO is a cornerstone, needs radical reform. We can get the idea of radical reform out of the way because it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. At least not while the US and Europe have effective control over the WTO. Not while they continue to believe the global trade regime benefits them. Not while free trade remains dogma, and especially not while they continue to self-select, or endorse, preferred candidates for positions of power.
This discrepancy in power is precisely why the Doha Round collapsed. When the round was launched in Qatar in 2001 there was a sense that the US and EU’s grip on power was loosening, and developing countries began to strengthen alliances in the WTO. It’s important to bear in mind that the legal framework of the WTO (the General Agreement on Tariffs & Trade) was essentially created by the Western Alliance. And of the nine successive rounds of negotiations between 1947 and 2001 Doha was the first time that developing countries actually stood up to the founders of the trade regime. It seemed that developing countries were finally no longer comfortable with being rule-takers but sought to become rule-makers in the multilateral system — especially the WTO.
There have been recurrent spates of optimism about resumption of the Doha Round for the better part of the past two decades, but little to no progress has been made. Given this stasis, and the eco-strategic stand-off between the US and China, the all-but-dead-in-the-water Doha Round is more than an economic disaster. It could feed into tensions in the South China Sea and the start of that “improbable war” between the two superpowers.
For now though, the US has thrown its weight behind Nigeria’s Okonjo-Iweala to head the WTO. The second-choice was South Korean trade minister Yoo Myung-hee, who pulled out of the race — but not before “close consultation” with Washington. Okonjo-Iweala will, therefore, be the first African to head the WTO, but she too had to get Washington’s approval. It’s fair to say the US (and the EU) will keep a close watch on her — especially around the services sector, agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
To be absolutely clear: Okonjo-Iweala will head the WTO with the blessing of the US and EU. It is not clear whether she received the blessing of the AU, or any of the mangled mess that is African regional organisations and institutions. She will not represent Africa’s interests, as some may expect, as she has to preside over the global trade regime and changing the WTO would be unimaginably difficult within one four-year term.
African countries have to continue to try to place highly skilled, brilliant negotiators in their trade delegations — an area in which the US and EU dominate in many ways. Also, it’s worth bearing in mind that not all Africans working in international organisations represent their countries. For what it’s worth, when I worked at the World Bank 20 years ago I was employed as a professional, not as a representative of the SA government.
This brings us back to the putative new secretary-general of the WTO. Dr Okonjo-Iweala is a US citizen (as well as being a Nigerian passport holder), with 25 years’ experience at the World Bank and two terms as Nigeria’s finance minister, first under Olusegun Obasanjo (2003-2006) and then under Goodluck Jonathan (2011–2015). What’s in it for Africa? My guess is little to nothing — unless African countries can get their act together, disentangle the spaghetti bowls of regional formations, and examine which of them actually work and which simply represent ambition in place of achievement.
Too many voices cry out for African integration and a single African market, without understanding the actual processes that need to be concluded before we may speak of a single AU — whether it is like the EU or the Association for South East Asian Nations. Someone also has to sit down and have a serious discussion with the bright sparks who insist that Africa needs to “decouple” from the global political economy.
As for Okonjo-Iweala, the first item on her agenda may have to be the restart — for real this time — of the Doha Round of negotiations. Individual African states should, in the meantime, strengthen their presence in the WTO, in terms of bums on seats and technical and bargaining skills.
• Lagardien, a visiting professor at the Wits University School of Governance, has worked in the office of the chief economist of the World Bank, as well as the secretariat of the National Planning Commission.
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