STEVEN KUO: Notice who the cool kids are at the G7 party

US President Joe Biden will be holding a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva, Switzerland on June 16.

This will be Biden’s first overseas trip as president. He will see Putin after attending the G7 summit in Cornwall, England.

The leaders of the group of seven so-called advanced economies of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US will sit down in the seaside resort to discuss economic matters. It used to be the G8, but Russia invaded Crimea and was excluded as a result. Putin gets his own meeting with Biden though.

As is his prerogative as the president of the G7, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has invited representatives from India, South Korea and Australia to the summit. In the same way we know who the cool kids are by who gets invited to the matric dance after-party, we can tell a lot about who has or hasn’t been invited.

China is not invited to the G7 and there is still no date for a Biden-Xi summit, despite open desire by Beijing to arrange a face-to-face summit to reset China-US relations.

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea were the two world leaders to visit Biden in Washington. The G7 leaders will now get face time, with Putin in turn.

President Xi Jinping did get a Chinese New Year’s phone call in February and the Chinese media duly made a big deal of it. Chinese media also reported on the “important speech” presented by Xi at a US-hosted climate change virtual summit in April — along with 40 other world leaders. All protocols are observed.

That Biden has not yet met with Xi is no accident and this does not mean China is not important. On the contrary. In his speech to Congress in April, Biden spoke about how the US welcomes competition and does not seek conflict with China.

Much of the current $6-trillion budget plan in Congress with increased spending on education, health care, renewable energy, defence, and scientific research is geared for the US to ramp up competition with China whose economy is set to overtake the US in total GDP before this decade is out.

What does Biden seek to achieve meeting with Putin, China’s strongest ally in global politics?

Dr Vu Le Thai Hoang and his colleague Huy Nguyen at the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam pointed out in an article in The Diplomate that the triangular relations among the US, China and Russia/Soviet Union have played a predominant role in global politics. They challenge the accepted wisdom that the current Russian-China alliance, driven by the two great powers’ indignation towards the West is as solid as it appears.

As China-Russia ties are held by their common interest to counter US “suppression”, and as China is the priority competitor for the US; the Biden administration will be motivated to improve relations with Russia to destabilise the China-Russia alliance. US secretary of state Anthony Blinken has stated that he desires “a stable and more predictable relationship” with Russia.

As both the US and China compete for Russa’s affections, Putin will seek to maximise his advantage. China can leverage its chequebook by buying more Russian oil and gas, the US can put pressure on European allies to increase energy imports from Russia and lift economic sanctions in place since 2014.

As “the theatre of great power competition” moves to the Indo-Pacific region, the fluidity of US-Russia and China-Russia relationships in the power triangle will bring some breathing space for SA as middle powers won’t be pushed as hard to declare where their loyalties stand.

The US has ramped up vaccine donations across the world to match China’s and the Biden administration may be catching up with financing African infrastructure projects that China has become the leader in. SA may yet be able to benefit if it were to play its cards smartly.

• Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer at the Graduate School of Business at UCT.