What happens now that last week’s terrifying violence and looting has been brought to an end? Some things will change and others will stay the same. Unfortunately, some of the changes made will be mistakes; and some of the things that need to change will stay the same.
The biggest, most positive, change will be in the ANC. The “insurrection” has finished off the radical economic transformation (RET) forces in the party. They are done and will have to go. As this grouping has been the most corrupt of all factions and the most hostile to the nonracialism project, this is a good thing.
They are not finished with their scorched-earth programme though, and remain at large with the risk that acts of sabotage could happen at any time. There is no certainty that, despite the war talk from President Cyril Ramaphosa, the individuals involved will be neutralised and brought to book.
The possibility that Ramaphosa will now take additional steps to clean up the ANC has improved. Among them are doing away with cadre deployment and stamping out corruption in ANC membership and voting systems. Ramaphosa has already promised faster reform in the wake of the violence; how far it will go is of vital importance.
The ANC will most definitely lose support in KwaZulu-Natal — possibly to the EFF — but in other provinces where Ramaphosa has capitalised on the “us vs them” narrative as citizens stood together against looting, the governing party may even gain. As there is no political alternative for most voters to migrate towards, and as Ramaphosa is still by far the strongest leader in the country, the gains are almost guaranteed.
Domestic business too, no matter how rattled and angry they may have been over the state’s failure to respond effectively for a week, will also continue its support. In KwaZulu-Natal we have now seen what happens when the centre does not hold, and it was not pretty.
The story is different when it comes to new fixed investment, by both domestic and international investors. SA now has a large political risk attached to its profile, which will take years to recede — if ever — even if structural economic reforms suddenly somehow pick up. Skilled emigration will also sharply increase, another irreversible consequence of the violence and trauma.
What will change in the state and government policy? It is an enormous blunder that the state security services were not cleaned up. Ramaphosa was advised in 2019 to do so, to restructure the agency and pursue criminal charges against several individuals. Yet those individuals still serve in government. Between them, under the Jacob Zuma administration, they not only ran a corrupt State Security Agency but established two off-the-books networks: a parallel network of agents run by Arthur Fraser, and another called the Special Operation Unit run by the man known as Zuma’s personal spy, Thulani Dlomo, which was allegedly trained by Russians in sabotage and firearms.
The cleanup will have to happen now. This includes the minister he put in charge, Ayanda Dlodlo, whose loyalties to him have been questioned. He will also have to reshuffle his cabinet. How well this is done will be extremely important.
On the policy side, Ramaphosa has opened the way to a basic income grant, promising that it is under serious consideration. He is now confronted with a stronger lobby for the grant than ever before, which argues that it can be easily paid for through higher taxes. It is clear he is tempted, as he has said a grant would show people that the government cares.
But a grant would be a serious mistake. Not because poor people don’t need or deserve state welfare — they do, and the most vulnerable already receive it. But for two other reasons: that the state needs to concentrate its resources and attention on changing what it is that is producing structural poverty, unemployment and a stagnant economy; and because a basic grant will not solve SA’s radical inequality or alter poor people’s life opportunities.
What are the things that will? Good-quality public services that raise people’s living standards. Basic education is top of the list: the biggest failing of the ANC is that after 25 years poor black children remain doomed to life failure because of the abysmal quality of schooling. This needs to change, but probably won’t.
High-quality public services in other areas — health, social work, water & sanitation, municipal cleaning, safe public transport —are affordable for SA and can transform people’s lives. To deliver them we need a capable state at all levels and spheres, and the political will to take on the vested interests that are crippling progress. That is the most important fix Ramaphosa should aim to deliver.
• Paton is editor at large.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.