A politically inspired reshuffle, security orientated, or one driven by the urgency of economic reform is difficult to discern in the eclectic mix of new appointments and changes in the cabinet. A mid-course correction is always welcome in times of turbulence. It can signify a leader’s confidence and ability to grasp the nettle and take new bold steps.
Such a change is necessary today as SA has been buffeted by multiple storms, including a prolonged economic decline compounded by a severe pandemic, violent unrest, and decline in ethical leadership in government that has seen the loot of the public purse and impropriety of leading public officials at a time when the country has been writhing from the Covid-19 pandemic. The debilitating factional battles within the ANC have persisted in ways that at times undermine sound governance.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has had ample time to absorb the lessons of a turbulent year since the outbreak of Covid-19 nearly 18 months ago. When he reshuffled his cabinet, he signalled where his priorities lie in the medium-term. More specifically, he set out his commitment to accelerate the vaccination programme, especially in the wake of the sharp spike in infections associated with the third wave of Covid-19 infection; achieve peace and stability in the face of violent unrest; and rebuild the economy while at the same time extending social protection to the most vulnerable groups in society.
The change is welcome, but it is not nearly as transformative to meet the depth of social and economic challenges the country faces today. Politics, no doubt, must have played a significant role. The governing party, the ANC, is headed for an elective conference at the end of 2022, where Ramaphosa is likely to be challenged by the faction associated with Zuma. That same year will open with a flurry of campaigning related to local government elections. Two years later, in 2024, the country will be focusing its attention on the general elections. As such, his cabinet change seeks to consolidate his political position.
Against this backdrop, the country is still in the throes of an intractable pandemic. The long-standing challenges of unemployment and inequality are persisting. And SA is slowly emerging from violent eruptions triggered by the jailing of a former president Jacob Zuma. The country’s underbelly in the form of deprivations still suffered by the black majority trapped in informal settlements, and squalid conditions in townships were laid bare during the violent protests, as they were at the beginning of hard lockdown in 2020.
Many pundits have constantly reminded us that SA was sitting on a powder keg in its tolerance for inequalities and high levels of unemployment among the country’s black youth. At some point, this will combust.
That moment may not come in the form of a big bang, but of small flames that flicker and spread over a long period until they choke the capacities of the state and unravel the thin threads of social stability. The solution to this does not lie in merely strengthening the security and intelligence apparatus of the state but in showing grit in driving reforms and taking hard decisions that may go against special interests. It also requires that the president demonstrates a strong commitment to ethical leadership. The retention of Zizi Kodwa, whose financial impropriety came to light at the Zondo Commission, is likely to raise more questions than inspiring confidence in the government’s commitment to ethical leadership.
When Ramaphosa announced an economic stimulus to the tune of R500bn in April 2020, there was much hope that this would lead to the sorts of outcomes that marked Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal during the depression years of the early 1930s. Many expected that the government would demonstrate a sense of urgency to use the crisis to spur profound changes in society and the economy.
This moment of optimism was dampened by widespread corruption linked to Covid-19 personal protective equipment purchases, with thousands of government employees implicated and the failure of the loan guarantee scheme to live up to expectations in supporting distressed small businesses.
The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 generated a flurry of activities, policy perspectives that were not always cohering, and piecemeal plans that the government failed to implement. There are, no doubt, essential reforms initiated in 2020 to the present time, which are at varying implementation phases, including those related to state-owned enterprises, energy, water, and visa regulations. In some of these, the government drew technical capacities from the private sector through initiatives such as Business for SA (B4SA) to identify areas that throttled economic performance.
An important theme in Ramaphosa’s rationale for his recent cabinet change was the need to improve state capabilities to implement change. Deficiency in state capabilities is, probably, the most debilitating weakness that has slowed down the government’s pace in driving reforms. When the executive team lacks strategic leadership capabilities, is unable to work in symphony, and is slow to execute, this undermines the government’s overall effectiveness.
The confusion and mixed messages in the security cluster in the wake of the violent unrest in the second half of 2021 was another sign of leadership weaknesses in parts of the executive. Some of these leadership deficiencies were evident in various tensions over policy goals in critical sectors related to energy, ICT, and water, among others. Strained relationships between some ministers and their directors-general have also eroded the effectiveness of the state.
Building strong capabilities within the state and stabilising the government are critical success factors for driving social and economic change. In achieving success, Ramaphosa must articulate a compelling and animating narrative of what this era stands for. Ramaphosa will need to restore hope and animate a sense of belief about a better future, building on small wins that he can demonstrate faster. He will have to show that he is serious about a clean government.
He must exert pressure on his leadership team, force them to co-ordinate better and more productively in overlapping areas, and demand quick results from them. Finally, Ramaphosa will need to focus on leaving a solid reform legacy that is borne out in improved economic prospects and living conditions of the majority of South Africans.
• Qobo is head of the Wits School of Governance
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