Over the last week I have watched with interest as authorities and the world’s media process the increasingly bleak prospects described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment release. The report, written by 234 of the world’s pre-eminent scientists and economists, assesses the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information regarding climate change, and points out that we have even less time to effect the drastic changes required than previously thought.
The report has a more refined approach than its 2014 predecessor in that it adopts a regional lens, making some awfully grim predictions for Southern Africa, including increasing water scarcity, food insecurity, more extreme weather events such as cyclones and severe heatwaves.
Environment minister Barbara Creecy received the report with unflappable stoicism, recognising the severity of the consequences of going over the “1.5°C global tipping point”. In her response she said “SA remains firmly committed to contributing our best effort towards the global cause of addressing climate change. In this regard we will be submitting our revised nationally determined contribution (NDC) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to the [UN Framework Convention on Climate Change] ahead of COP26”.
Of course, a fair bit of reading between the lines is required. The deadline of July 31 for submission of our thoroughly unambitious NDCs has already sailed on by. Despite SA being the 14th worst carbon emitter in the world, and despite copious financial access to readily available renewable energy options, our country still needs a handout before it will make any commitment to helping itself.
“Significant long-term financial resources, at concessional rates, will be needed to introduce new technologies and open up significant new job creation opportunities so that our country joins others who are benefiting from the green technological transition across the world,” Creecy said.
How ironic that in 2015 Moody’s rated SA as having the world’s fastest-growing green economy on the back of investments related to the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme. That was of course until the national government’s slavish addiction to coal resulted in every effort being made to derail the programme.
According to the minister, “Sustaining the global temperature of 1.5°C by the end of the 21st century will require global scale negative emissions in the second half of the century to reduce atmospheric CO2”. Aside from a stubborn refusal to grasp the implications of breaching a tipping point, it is clear that no amount of scientific alarm or practical suffering will get in the way of all the hidden agendas and smoke and mirrors. So let’s get real for a minute.
Last week also saw the inaugural release of the quarterly MSCI Net-Zero Tracker, which measures the contribution of the world’s public companies to total carbon emissions and their progress towards net-zero emissions. The tracker monitors the progress of about 9,300 listed companies, representing 99% of the global equity universe, in the implementation of credible plans to reduce their carbon footprint in line with the Paris Agreement.
Their combined emissions add up to 10.9-billion tonnes of direct greenhouse gases annually, putting humanity on a trajectory to exceed our collective carbon budget required to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C as soon as 2026.
While our politicians fiddle around the edges, the MSCI states that “addressing the impacts of climate change will require the largest reconstruction of the global economy since the Industrial Revolution”. Alarmingly, the Net-Zero Tracker highlights how listed companies’ collective carbon footprint has remained roughly unchanged since 2013.
It is clear that the 1.5°C target is beyond our reach now, but we still have 21 years and five months before the 2°C target meets the same fate. Clearly we cannot rely on our politicians to deliver us from this catastrophe, meaning a drastic increase in investor pressure to drive change must now be our best bet.
• Maguire holds a master’s degree in global change studies from Wits and has been developing green economy solutions for the private sector, NGOs and the state for more than a decade.
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