One couldn’t surf the internet in peace this past week without being bombarded with news of the US’s failure and humiliation in Afghanistan. In a rush to mark the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers in New York, Washington had botched its hasty military drawdown.
The Afghan army, trained and supplied by the US, superior in numbers and weapons, did not even stand and fight against the ragtag Taliban fighters. The modern army of Afghanistan simply surrendered given the assurances by the Taliban of a safe passage home.
Pundits across the world enjoyed denouncing the Biden administration, comparing images at Kabul airport where hundreds of Afghans tried to cling on to a departing US transporter plane with images of American retreat from Saigon in Vietnam in 1975. Some even speculate that, like the Soviet Union, which withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989 terminally weakened by the misadventure, perhaps the US will follow the same path to the dust heap of history.
The US drawdown in Afghanistan was a disaster. Arguably, so was the entire 20-year occupation of Afghanistan. The excuse to overthrow the Taliban — that they were harbouring Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the Twin Towers attacks, was always flimsy. Then going on to occupy the Central Asian country at a cost of $300m a day for 20 years. This is not to mention the cost of tens of thousands of deaths on all sides. Now, the Taliban is back in charge.
Afghanistan proves once again that the chokepoint geopolitical position in Central Asia it occupies means it is irresistible for empires that wish to control Eurasia. Its reputation as the graveyard of empires — British, Russian, Soviet Union, and now the US — is not diminished.
Why did the US withdraw? Does US drawdown from Afghanistan and Iraq mean the end of the US’s global ambitions?
No. US global ambition has not diminished. The world has changed and US priorities have shifted. Twenty years ago, the US’s enemy was Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism. The US needed to ensure a stable Middle East, so a cheap and steady flow of crude oil could be maintained.
Today, fracking technology means the US is an exporter of oil and gas. Besides, the world is moving steadily away from hydrocarbons towards renewable energy. The justification for the US to control the Middle East and Central Asia through Iraq and Afghanistan is no longer there.
The challenge facing US global hegemony is now China and the Chinese technology industrial complex. The US policy of “pivot to Asia” is in full swing and Washington is determined to focus its resources in the Asia-Pacific to check the rise of China.
The engine of global growth is no longer the traditional industrial might of oil, steel and automotive. The companies of tomorrow are technology driven: Amazon, Apple, Google; Alibaba, Huawei, Tencent, Baidu and JD.com. Yesterday, it was important to have boots in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, American leadership in 5G, artificial intelligence and blockchain is as crucial.
The US drawdown from Afghanistan and Iraq will increase the burden on China. China has benefited from the liberal global order in that the US has ensured a peaceful international environment with open global trade. The US had hoped China would enjoy the fruits of globalisation and ultimately embrace liberal democratic values. This has not happened.
The US is now no longer interested in spending resources in the Middle East and Central Asia to ensure open trade routes where China benefits. After all, China is the largest importer of Middle East oil and it has not had to expand resources to ensure its steady supply.
Furthermore, Islamic fundamentalism is also a priority threat to China. This threat was largely kept under wraps by the US and may well escalate with the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan. While the US may have lost a set in Afghanistan, it has not lost the game.
• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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