The German election has just concluded. The centre-left SPD came in first with 25.7% of the vote, followed by outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU with 24.1%. The Greens were third with 14.8%. A new coalition government will need to be negotiated, and this may take months. It will be important to watch closely how Germany, the EU’s largest country, positions itself regarding foreign and trade policy.
In terms of global politics, with the current contestations between the US and China dominating global headlines, whether Germany’s new coalition government changes the current pro-China stance, and by implication the EU’s China stance, is ever more important.
On the one hand Germany has sent a warship to the South China Sea on a “regular exercise” after Berlin had formally requested and been denied a friendly harbour visit by Beijing. On the other hand, China is Germany’s largest trading partner, with Germany enjoying a trade surplus.
Will the new German government take a harder line towards China, raise human rights issues and risk trade retaliation? Or will it continue with Merkel’s quiet diplomacy, choosing to engage and work with China on priority issues such as climate change where China is keen to collaborate?
How the US-China trade war plays out, and whether the new German government decides to take sides, will have economic and security ramifications for SA. On the economic front, over the past decade on average half of global growth has been because of China. We all saw how the Chinese regulatory clampdown on its tech giants affected stock exchanges globally. Should Germany take a hardline stance on China and the Chinese economy wanes, it will dampen global commodity prices and lead to a slump in Southern African economies.
Security pact
On the security front, the Indo-Pacific has seen much turmoil in the past year and it does not appear that detente will come in the foreseeable few years. New acronyms for new alliances seem to be created monthly. The “Quad” is for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, in which Japan, the US, Australia and India hold regular security meetings and joint military exercises. India was initially not keen to join, not wishing to jeopardise the relationship with its Brics partner. Skirmishes in the Himalaya border in 2020 with China forced New Delhi’s hand.
A new trilateral security pact, the “Aukus”, was announced on September 15 by US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. The first act of Aukus is for the US and UK to assist Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. Co-operation on cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies are to follow.
The submarine deal caused fury in Paris, with President Emmanuel Macron recalling his ambassadors from the US and Australia. He was not angry because France was concerned by potential nuclear proliferation in the region, or that the Anglo-Saxons were giving China a hard time in the Indo-Pacific, but because the Élysée Palace learnt of Australia tearing up the €56bn deal it had to buy diesel-powered submarines from France in the press. Biden has since patched things up with Macron. Stopping short of an apology, the US president admitted that European partners should have been consulted and will be consulted in future.
There is no denying that the US has the bit between its teeth and is determined that China will not prevail in the Indo-Pacific. Selling nuclear submarines to Australia, “a Western country in Asia” is symbolically important and strategically devastating. Nuclear submarines are almost undetectable and can pop up anywhere in the South and East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and anywhere in the Indo-Pacific, which means the security strategic calculations and contingency plans of every Indo-Pacific country should be revised.
It is also unclear how Asean countries and Indian Ocean Rim countries, including SA, feel about Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. There are no certainties, other than that the US is not preparing for an easy, or peaceful, transition in the global order.
• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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