LUKANYO MNYANDA: A commanding presence in our lives

“I wish it could end today,” was President Cyril Ramaphosa’s response when asked at an ANC pre-election event about the ongoing state of disaster. “What if I were to end it tomorrow,” he went on, and then there was another wave of infections that meant it had to be reintroduced? Then he gave the standard answer about how the government is guided by science and health considerations. 

After 18 months of various lockdowns that have given the government unprecedented power — at least since the advent of democracy — to regulate our lives, some may be sceptical of the idea that officials are really keen to give up that power.

I count myself among the sceptics who find it hard to believe that a body that has “command” within its title is one that would be stacked with people who are keen to relinquish control. Something about the name National Coronavirus Command Council just doesn’t sit right.

Due to the nature of the event Ramaphosa didn’t really address the main point of the question. There was no realistic prospect of the state of disaster ending soon. The question was about what it would take to get there, and whether vaccine mandates might be the best route. The bigger issue was why the government was so lukewarm about the idea, even as it gives tacit approval to companies and venues that require proof of vaccination.

Unlike French President Emmanuel Macron, who has told his nation that it is either the jab or no return to normal life, the SA government has been more hesitant, leaving the issue with private companies such as Discovery, which has led the way. The financial services company and owner of SA’s largest medical aid administrator will make Covid-19 vaccination mandatory for all its workers from 2022.

There was an instant backlash to Macron’s introduction of laws requiring businesses to require immunity passes from customers, including street protests and accusations of dictatorship and that he was betraying the French principles of Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité! While his critics concentrated on liberty, he pointed to the last one, which refers to “brotherhood” or citizenship. 

Ramaphosa acknowledged that the vaccine mandate debate was happening globally but added that “we are also mindful of what our constitution says”. Some might also want to ask what the constitution says about the freedom of movement and association, which has been seriously curtailed during the 18 months of Covid-19 lockdown — and even completely removed in the early days, when you couldn’t even interact with anyone outside your immediate household.  

“To the extent that people want to make it mandatory, let’s engage,” Ramaphosa said, noting that the government was hamstrung by opposition from trade unions. “We call on the private sector to lead the charge,” he added, in comments that one could read either as an endorsement of steps taken by companies such as Discovery or an appeal to intensify efforts at education and mobilisation.

What is not in doubt is that vaccinations save lives and ease pressure on the health system, something that was cited as the main reason SA had to enforce a hard lockdown that pushed GDP down by more than 6% in 2020 and added more than 1-million people to the ranks of the unemployed.

Back in June the Associated Press released data that showed that virtually all people who died from Covid-19 the month before hadn’t been vaccinated, something it said showed that deaths could plummet to zero if everyone who was eligible for a jab received one. Opponents of the jabs like to point out that people who are vaccinated can also catch and spread the virus, though they also tend to mischaracterise this by saying they are “as likely” as the vaccinated to be infected.

The AP data debunked this, showing that so-called “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of the more than 107,000 people who were hospitalised with Covid-19 — just over 1%. Consider the implications for the US, which has recorded as many as 700,000 Covid-19 deaths and where vaccination and other measures such as wearing masks has got caught up in partisan politics.

It is also true that after months of struggle to get the SA government to procure vaccines the vaccination process isn't going fast enough. On Thursday, when Ramaphosa addressed the nation on Covid-19 and relaxed the lockdown level, just over 146,000 shots were administered, half the target the government says it needs to get 70% of the population covered by year-end.

It is clear that a vaccination certificate that can be shown as proof of one’s status is on the way, something that was also confirmed by UK Africa minister Vicky Ford, who was in the country in the past week. She said the UK, which now looks set to remove SA from its “red list” of countries regarded as dangerous to visit due to Covid-19, had contributed funding towards the development of such a certificate.

It was clear from her statement that travel to the UK won’t be possible for those who are not vaccinated, and that is likely to be the case for many other countries. In a way vaccine mandates are already here, and Ramaphosa alluded to how they can be implemented. Nobody will be forced to be vaccinated, but some civic events might not be available to those who refuse to show their own civic duty to protect fellow citizens from Covid-19 infections.

The added bonus is that such restrictions, including vaccine passports, could be done away with quickly,  unlike our never-ending state of disaster. Ireland, which has vaccinated 90% of all adults as well as 80% of people over 12, is dropping almost all of its restrictions. In his speech, Ramaphosa said the government was looking at a further relaxation “particularly with respect to sporting and cultural events”.

It won’t be a coincidence if this comes at the same time as the vaccine certificate is rolled out. And people who want to have their freedoms back are hardly going to complain.