For political analysts this is a fascinating election. For voters, less so.
Aside from the addition of many small parties, the choices on offer are the same. The two biggest parties are each beset by big difficulties, both internally and in their relationship with voters. But both still occupy the political space definitively, making it difficult for competitors to make headway.
With politics confined by the political party choices on offer, no earth-shifting changes are likely. The changes will happen on the margins, perhaps giving the impression afterwards that not much has changed. But both the country and its politics are changing all the time and the change on the margins seen in this election will be important signs of what is to come.
For analysts the fascination lies in the fact that a lot has changed since people last voted. Political, economic and social conditions have worsened and life is harder for everyone no matter who they are. The poor are suffering more; the wealthier feel less secure. The entire electorate is disgruntled and there is a sense that not much is going right for the country.
With so few opinion polls conducted in this environment, there is a lot we don’t know about how voters will respond, but there are some important factors to look at.
The first is the disillusionment of the population with the political process. While a global trend that has led to some startling developments — Brexit, the victory of Donald Trump and the flourishing of politics that peddles misinformation and lies — in SA we have our specific circumstance.
In several SA cities, particularly Joburg, Tshwane and Gqeberha, as well as some towns, residents have now experienced two governing parties, the ANC and the DA, without any demonstrable difference in outcomes. Even though in many instances the DA governed in unstable coalitions that made governing difficult, the impression has been created among a sizeable section of voters that the DA, like the ANC, failed them.
The disillusionment was reflected in the poor turnout for voter registration. Only 400,000 new voters registered during the registration weekend, with the result that — as election analyst Dawie Scholtz has pointed out — the 2021 voters roll has fewer people than in 2019.
It was also seen in the Afrobarometer survey on public trust released in August. Trust in government institutions has fallen, and that in political parties has fallen dramatically. The ANC was at a trust level of 27% and the DA at 24%. Even President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is way more popular than the ANC, was trusted by only 38% of respondents.
It all points to a low-turnout election, which usually favours the DA most, with its voters being more accessible physically and more motivated to vote.
The second factor is the state of the two biggest parties and their relationship with voters. While the incumbent is usually at an advantage in an election, the ANC has performed so poorly, destroying municipal infrastructure through incompetence and looting funds intended for development, its status as the governing party is actually a disadvantage. Its election pitch — “we have made mistakes and promise to do better” — has been dubbed by Scholtz “the ANC apology tour”.
The ANC is promising voters that it will reform its ways. The evidence of this is the suspension of secretary-general Ace Magashule and the implementation of the “step aside rule” for those charged with crimes. It also reformed its candidate selection process, though unevenly, to involve non-ANC community members in picking candidates who are known to serve the community.
There is a lot riding on the election outcome for the ANC as an organisation. If the electorate supports it, its renewal programme — and its hope that it can delay the day when it may lose power — will get a lift, otherwise the opposite could happen, with an acceleration of downward momentum.
The DA also has troubles. Leaving aside the poster debacle, it will be impossible for it to achieve the 27% it got in 2016. Since declining in 2019 the DA has taken a high-risk gamble: it has repositioned itself emphatically back towards minority communities, hoping in particular that it will win back the Afrikaans-speaking voters who left in 2019. It has also shifted right on social issues and alienated black voters with its stance on race and purposeful shift away from a black leader.
While the EFF does not have existential constraints like the ANC and DA and can be expected to grow somewhat, its major constraint remains that while supporters turn out for rallies, not as many are registered to vote.
• Paton is editor at large.
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