Futureworld brings you Mindbullets: News from the Future, to spark strategic thinking about leadership, innovation and digital disruption. These fictitious scenarios aim to challenge conventional mindsets and promote understanding of the future context for business.
October 21 2026: Yes, I know. When Tesla stock shot up six years ago, making Elon Musk the world’s richest person, we all thought the market was prescient, and that the age of cyber trucking had finally arrived. Electric cars were going to be the next big thing, and soon.
Well, it turns out that the stock market has little to do with reality, and is mainly driven by speculation. Sure, electric vehicle innovation is proceeding in leaps and bounds, and the latest battery tech is awesome, and there are more e-car companies than you can shake a fist at.
But it’s still not mainstream. Dozens of auto companies are phasing out gas burners and some have abandoned combustion engines all together, but the market majority still wants something affordable that fills up quickly and goes the distance.
Let’s be fair, there are some cities and smaller countries where electric cars and hybrids are edging out petrol and diesel versions, mainly because of government incentives and carbon taxes. But globally, that’s still a small percentage of autos on the roads. Despite cheaper “Chinatron” models, your average Joe sees a battery car as a luxury alternative.
If you’re a two or three-car household, you’re more likely to go electric for at least one of them. But if you can’t afford a fast charger, live out of town, or need a daily drive that’s always tanked up, chances are you’re like me — driving a vehicle that still has an exhaust.
Don’t get me wrong; electric cars are the future. When charging networks are everywhere, and it only takes a few minutes to top up the juice at home, everyone will love the convenience and low maintenance of an e-car. But in the meantime, they can start the revolution without me. — Date published: October 21 2021
Electric cars and trucks are here to stay
Cities insist on cleaner air despite the slump in oil
May 15 2030: They’ve slowly been making inroads into the mainstream transport paradigm, but now electric cars are the mainstream, and trucks are right behind them.
Ten years ago, cities from Shanghai to Venice to New York were treated to weeks of fresh air and cleaner rivers, courtesy of coronavirus shutdowns. It was remarkable how quickly air quality surged, as people remained at home and cars remained parked. Most airlines were grounded too, as travel bans to curb the pandemic were hastily decreed.
Eco warriors rejoiced, as factories closed and streets emptied. “Just look at how much damage we are doing to the environment!” they chorused. “You can see the difference already.”
Once lockdown ended, why should it be back to the bad, old ways? Obviously it was important to rebuild economies, but it was also an opportunity to do things differently. People were hesitant to mingle, and use public transport, so private cars were back in force, with their pollution problems.
Many cities, and even whole countries, were quick to increase incentives for switching to electric transport, and penalties for diesel and petrol vehicles. Companies such as Tesla and BYD ramped up production, and it wasn’t long before electric cars were outselling combustion vehicles in the light passenger class — ideal for city commutes.
Now it’s more like 65% globally, and light trucks are about 20% electric, and more in the large metros, where diesel is completely outlawed. Country towns and farming communities are still driven by the economics of cheap oil and old school autos, but with modern batteries and chargers, everyone will eventually go electric, just like they all got smartphones in the end.
There’s just one problem. Junkyards can’t keep up with the millions of old gas guzzlers and rust buckets that are being discarded; they’re unsaleable and can’t be recycled. And the museums can only hold so many cars from the previous century. — Date published: May 14 2020
• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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