In this seemingly fast-paced and hard-to-predict Covid-19 world some things just don’t change. That thought came to mind as, into my second hotel quarantine in six months, I watched the news on UK television.
It speaks to the randomness of the situation, which some scientists have described as political theatre, that while some people are having to spend a small fortune and almost two weeks stuck in hotel rooms, others, who might have had the good fortune of having travelled a few days earlier, are roaming about. This over a variant that might well have been circulating in other parts of the world before SA scientists started talking about it two weeks ago.
By Friday, the Omicron variant had been detected in 38 countries, yet the countries that have been listed have one thing in common: they are all African. Point that out and get ready to have a finger wagged at you for playing the “race card”. Yet if the bans had been about stopping the spread of the Omicron variant these countries would have acted like Japan and closed their borders to everyone.
CNBC quoted the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Maria van Kerkhove as saying that “some of the earliest cases of this particular variant may very well not be in SA”, and that the timeline as to when it started circulating could change as more countries sequence a backlog of Covid-19 cases from November.
That lends some credibility to the argument that maybe things could have turned out differently had our scientists not been the most eager to be first off the blocks with media conferences and scary Twitter threads. Unfortunately, they don’t seem to have lost their enthusiasm for this form of communication, though I’d be the last person to advocate censorship.
Imagine the difference to SA’s people and their livelihoods if the announcement had been co-ordinated with the WHO with data from other countries where this particular variant may also have been detected. That’s not to say it’s justifiable that SA should be getting punished now for its transparency, or that in frustration we should turn on our own scientists and blame them for the economic catastrophe resulting from these travel restrictions.
One just has to look back to 2020 and realise that politicians in the UK and elsewhere were always going to behave this way, irrespective of the scientific evidence. In about three weeks it will be the anniversary of the UK putting a complete ban on all flights from SA in response to what later became known as the Beta variant.
That wasn’t reversed until October, causing untold misery for people separated from their loved ones and for the tourism industry, a sector that before the Covid-19 outbreak stood out as among the few economic growth generators in an otherwise stagnant economy that now has a jobless rate of almost 35%.
The irony might be lost on SA’s “friends” in the West, but these unjustified and damaging attacks on the economy come at a time when they are dangling all sort of inducements in front of the country, such as the proposed funding plan for Eskom’s “green transition”.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is more upset, at least more vocal, this time around than he was 12 months ago with Beta. Perhaps he could show his displeasure by telling UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and friends what they can do with their charity. What they propose to give with their green pledges, they take away with discriminatory policies that are nothing more than showboating for their electorate, depriving millions of South Africans of the ability to fend for themselves.
To see why sanity is unlikely to prevail despite the growing scientific consensus about the futility and harm caused by red listing, look no further than comments from Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases. He’s been quoted as suggesting that the ban on SA should be rolled back “as quickly as possible” because the variant “is out there, so it’s going to spread no matter what”.
The giveaway comment was that governments had to act against SA and its neighbours because they would have been “crucified” at home for perceived inaction. For Brexit UK, being tough on borders is too tempting a guise to hide other failures to stay unused. Otherwise, the government reaction would be seen to mirror the complacency, confused messaging and incompetence of 12 months ago.
This time in 2020 Johnson was defying scientific advice and pledging that he would not introduce new restrictions and “cancel Christmas”. It was only on December 19 that he did exactly that, imposing a lockdown that only three days earlier he had said would be “inhuman”.
That script is playing out again. The government that told people six months ago that the pandemic was over and they should throw caution (and their masks) to the wind is now at odds with its own scientists, who are urging people to curb socialising. In the midst of this new leg of the pandemic the prime minister is occupied about whether schools can have nativity plays.
The reaction has to be proportionate, he says, and the UK has shown that by being tough on the borders. Africa is a handy scapegoat with no political downside to kicking it in the teeth, as opposed to China or India.
I wish Johnson had been on the plane with the National Health Service worker who, having risked her life on the frontline of the UK’s battle against Covid-19, is now being punished and bankrupted for using the first opportunity in two years to visit family in SA.
Talk about ingratitude.
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