Wow, what a year it has been. From a global geopolitical perspective, 2021 has been a roller-coaster ride. At a global level, we had the US-China contest and pandemic politics, in which rich countries hoarded vaccines and declared a travel ban against Southern African countries — for discovering the Omicron Covid-19 strand — without scientific justification.
At a continental level, slow but steady progress appears to have been made across West, East and Southern Africa on pushing the African Continental Free Trade Area forward. It is only through trade and commerce that the continent can march forward.
The contest between the US and China has been fierce. Beijing had hoped that the election of President Joe Biden at the end of 2020 would bring an end to the trade war and that the US would recognise China as an equal in the Asia-Pacific. However, as many pundits, including this one, predicted, there was no let-up of pressure on China. After all, the only thing Republicans and Democrats in the US can agree on is the rise of China and how this threatens US dominance and global interests.
So, like MMA fighters before a fight, the US and China stood nose to nose and tried to stare each other down through most of 2021. No-one blinked, but if you look carefully there appears to be a hint of concern on the edge of the long-reigning champion’s smirk. However, we can’t be completely sure if the confidence the upstart exudes is indeed based on a correct assessment of his own powers.
What is different between Cold War 2.0 and the one between the US and the Soviet Union is that the US and Chinese economies are inextricably intertwined. There are tens of thousands of Chinese citizens and students working and studying in the US, and the two economies have billions in investments in each other’s economies. The US government’s targeting of Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, and the Chinese government’s clampdown on its technology firms listing on the New York Stock Exchange, are the most visible signs of the two sides trying to protect their strategic telecommunications and tech industries. However, both countries know that it is not in their economic interest to rock the political boat too hard.
Closer to home, there appears to be an ideological breakthrough among the cadres in the ANC with the realisation that closed borders and protectionism do not attract foreign direct investment or create jobs. We saw Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who visited SA a month ago, cry out against our visa policy, in which we do not reciprocate the visa-on-arrival policy Kenya has towards South Africans. At the weekend, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced during his trip to four countries in West Africa that visa restrictions for Kenya and Ghana are to be lifted.
It is also encouraging to see Ghana and other African countries standing up for South and Southern Africa, pointing out the blatant Afrophobia from Western countries such as the UK that shut their borders against SA.
With an entourage including trade, industry & competition minister Ebrahim Patel and international relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor and accompanied by business, the SA delegation spent the past week in West Africa visiting Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Senegal.
West African businesses openly complained about the SA business environment being overregulated and about the country being a very difficult place to do business. Visa regulations, licences, exchange controls and localisation requirements all work to conspire against foreign direct investment.
With the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement signed and as SA, Ghana, Kenya and others lead the way towards a borderless continent, we should gradually see growing intra-African trade. It’s not rocket science: a continent that can use its own natural resources, deploy its own people, and create its own markets will grow and prosper.
• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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