Futureworld brings you Mindbullets: News from the Future, to spark strategic thinking about leadership, innovation and digital disruption. These fictitious scenarios aim to challenge conventional mindsets and promote understanding of the future context for business.
December 10 2029
Natural gas has long been touted as the obvious successor to coal and oil in the global energy mix. It’s simply cleaner and easier to transform into the most convenient fuels. Even jet fuel is made primarily from gas these days. And the fracking revolution has made gas abundant, everywhere.
On the other hand, environmentalists are anti-gas, because it’s primarily methane, and fracking can lead to soil and water pollution. Methane is also produced from rotting garbage and animal waste, or biogas, but the problem is harvesting it cost-effectively; still, biogas is far more socially acceptable than “fossil fuel” gas trapped underground.
Antarctica, the fifth-biggest continent on the planet, is a pristine ice-bound wilderness with unique ecosystems. People and nations have been at pains to protect it from human interference and exploitation, and mining in Antarctica is strictly banned. But surrounding it is the Southern Ocean, and that’s where the latest green gas resources have been discovered.
Green gas is hydrogen-rich natural gas, which means that it’s the only place in the world where hydrogen can be mined, instead of manufactured. Granted, there’s still a bit of processing to be done, separating the hydrogen out of the mixture, but it’s way less polluting than steam reforming or coal gasification. And it has to be done carefully, as hydrogen readily combines with oxygen and other elements. It’s a pretty explosive substance!
Now the moral dilemma facing everyone is this: do we leave this gas alone, even though it’s far from the Antarctic coastline, and ignore the only source of natural hydrogen known to humankind? Or do we take advantage of this green bounty to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, and concede that some deep-sea drilling in the Southern Ocean is justified?
Solar power and renewable energy are great, but heavy industry and jet planes need green fuel to operate sustainably, and if we can’t mine it, we have to make it — and that has its own set of problems and trade-offs. Any exploitation of this resource will involve a minefield of international “co-operation” and corporate multinational agreements. Will that prove impossible?
Date published: December 9 2021
Net-zero deadline: China goes underground
China turns to two sources of ‘unconventional’ gas
September 9 2032
As part of China’s transition from coal to solar power, the country has been investing heavily in developing new, smaller nuclear plants, and also consuming vast quantities of natural gas. With more than half this supply coming from imports, China desperately needed new resources.
Now two sources of “unconventional” gas are being tapped. Scientists have developed recovery technologies for gas hydrates in the South China Sea, and petro companies are turning coal into gas — underground.
Gas hydrates are frozen lumps of gas at the bottom of the ocean, and are abundant in the South China Sea. In 2023 China set up a major SciTech project to invent ways to economically exploit this deep-water resource. Now the world’s first commercial hydrates harvesting operation is under way.
Turning coal into synthetic gas or “syngas” is decades-old technology, but generates a lot of carbon dioxide. By pumping oxygen into underground coal beds, researchers discovered they could produce syngas for extraction, and leave the carbon and other polluting by-products in place. After much development, gas companies are producing hydrogen-rich syngas from deep-level coal, and contributing to the “clean” utilisation of China’s huge coal reserves.
China has committed internationally to eventually achieving a “net-zero” energy economy; but the road to a “clean, low carbon, safe and efficient” energy system will depend on natural gas from the sea and synthetic gas from underground coal. Together they can satisfy China’s gas demand for hundreds of years.
Unlocking these domestic reserves will unlock an energy boost for China’s economy, even as global demand for gas reaches new highs.
Date published: September 9 2021
• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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