The on-off approach by the UK and other countries in placing SA on their travel “red lists” has already resulted in this country losing much of its normal inbound tourist traffic this season.
Last week, the EU member states lifted the ban that had been in place since November 2021 and the discovery of the Omicron variant. This follows on the UK’s decision in December to take SA off its red list. This is undoubtedly welcome news but may be too late to make a material difference to the overall picture for international tourism. The inbound season typically lasts from October through March and we’re already more than halfway through January, though the planes appear to be relatively full.
At the other end of the world, the northern hemisphere ski resorts of Europe are scurrying around trying to ensure that the 2021/2022 skiing season isn’t a repetition of 2021’s awful time, when foreigners were forced to stay away because of travel restrictions. And this appears to be paying off, thanks to sensible policies adopted by most of these countries. Even where strict lockdowns have been announced, as in Austria, winter sports resorts have remained open to most tourists. There are Covid-19 testing protocols in place, but these are being kept as unobtrusive as possible. Interestingly, British tourists to Austria require to be triple vaccinated and exhibit a negative PCR test.
Until Omicron, Switzerland had a remarkably liberal approach to border entry. All one had to show was proof of vaccination or recovery from Covid-19, failing which a negative PCR test would do the trick. On the announcement of the Omicron discovery, it immediately put up the shutters and demanded that visitors quarantine for seven days before being let loose in the rest of the country. However, this edict was quickly rescinded and now all that is required from fully vaccinated travellers is a negative lateral flow test on arrival.
The US only requires a negative lateral flow test no more than 24 hours old for entry at its borders. These are tangible demonstrations of countries acting decisively in the face of changing external threats. Hopefully SA can learn by example.
According to the latest edition of the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) World Tourism Barometer, international tourist arrivals grew 58% in July-September 2021 compared with the same period of 2020. However, they remained 64% below 2019 levels. Europe recorded the best relative performance in the third quarter, with international arrivals 53% down on the same three-month period of 2019. Even though the figures are still well down on prepandemic levels, the trend is encouraging. Increased traveller confidence is probably the single biggest factor driving improved tourism.
But the geographical improvement in tourism is uneven, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining severely depressed as many destinations remain closed to foreign travellers, while Europe and the Americas are picking up rapidly. Thanks mainly to pent-up demand, average spend per trip has increased noticeably, though contributing factors to increased spend are longer stays coupled with rising accommodation and transport prices.
Barring the discovery of a new, more lethal variant over the next few months, conventional wisdom suggests that the worst of this pandemic will be over in 2022 and that 2023 should be close to a normal year. The competition among tourist destinations in attracting inbound tourists will be fierce and SA will need to be ahead of the game if its tourist industry is to survive and flourish. It has many things going for it already, especially the weak rand which makes everything very affordable.
It will emerge from the pandemic with a population largely immune to the virus, even though the vaccination rate is relatively low. It therefore makes sense to scrap its onerous and expensive PCR testing requirements for inbound air travellers and replace it with either proof of vaccination or at worst, a simple and cheap lateral flow (antigen) test. Only time will tell whether the authorities will buy into such an elegant solution.
• Gilmour is an independent investment analyst with Salmour Research.
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