Africa is split on the Ukraine crisis. In the UN General Assembly vote last week condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine, of the 54 African countries just 28 voted in favour of the resolution. SA was one of 17 African countries that abstained. Eight did not vote, and Eritrea voted against the resolution.
SA’s department of international relations & co-operation initially released a statement calling on Russia to “immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine in line with the UN Charter”. We will never know if the Russia embassy in Pretoria made any calls, but President Cyril Ramaphosa quickly realised this was inconsistent with SA’s alliance with Russia and back-pedalled SA’s position to one of neutrality and calling for a negotiated settlement.
The neutral stance SA now holds is consistent with that of India and China, which steered clear of condemning Russia, although Brazil voted for the resolution. While we can criticise Ramaphosa for not condemning such a blatant act of aggression against innocent civilians in Ukraine, it seems to me this will do the current crisis no good. SA remaining neutral allows us to be available as a viable facilitator of any future peace negotiations.
During the height of the Darfur crisis, when Sudan was under UN sanctions, the West had to admit that the only talks the al Bashir administration would engage in were with people such as former president Thabo Mbeki, who was appointed UN special envoy to Sudan in 2012. While China was initially reluctant to get involved in the Sudan peace process, its economic investment in the country meant it had to, eventually, and it ultimately played a useful role in bringing the parties together to follow the negotiation process. China also participated in negotiations after the South Sudanese civil war.
The Brics group’s object is to bring more equality to the global order, which remains dominated by the West. SA has continued to identify itself as the voice speaking up for Africa and contesting Western global hegemony. While SA is not likely to be invited to be a mediator or act as a UN special envoy in Ukraine, the country’s policy has always been to back negotiation. We do, after all, have a record of settling our own intractable problem of white minority rule when it appeared that civil war was unavoidable.
Ukraine’s foreign minister has already officially requested that China intervene. Given that the relationship between Russia and the West has totally broken down, China and the UN are likely to lead peace talks for an initial ceasefire and later a long-term peace agreement.
My estimation is that if Ukraine can hold out against the Russian onslaught and force a stalemate, a peace settlement is likely to designate Ukraine as a neutral country that will not join Nato. This would allow Russian forces to declare the objective accomplished and withdraw. If Ukraine cannot hold back the Russian advance over coming weeks, then either Russia will install a pro-Russian puppet government in Kyiv or it will split Ukraine into western and eastern parts, in the same way the allies did with Germany after World War 2. Eastern Ukraine would then become a Russian satellite state and buffer against Nato.
Beijing is in an unenviable position now. On the one hand it affirmed a special relationship with Russia less than a month ago and Putin showed Beijing the courtesy of launching his attack on Ukraine only after the Winter Olympics in Beijing was over. On the other hand, despite all the diplomatic bluster these past few years, China’s economic wellbeing depends on good trading relations with the EU and US. China’s quasi-alliance with Russia means the EU is carefully re-examining its relationship with Russia’s closest ally.
While Ramaphosa has retained some political capital through SA not siding with the West, it is important that he work with the international community to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the crisis in Ukraine.
• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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