The global order has changed significantly since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. Germany and Japan, two great powers of Europe and Asia, which have always prioritised trade and commerce and have a track record of following conservative foreign policies over decades, have made radical foreign and security policy changes that were unimaginable before the invasion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared before the Japanese parliament via video link in March, where he expressed grave concerns about a nuclear war, a subject that resonates in Japan for obvious reasons. He received a standing ovation.
The strong condemnation of the invasion from Japan is uncharacteristic of this normally conservative country, especially given the strong relations it has forged with Russia over the past two decades, with major investments in oil and gas as well as manufacturing in the country. And Japanese support for Ukraine has not been limited to politicians. There has been an outpouring of support from Japanese businesses and everyday people donating money and goods to assist Ukrainian refugees.
In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has executed a U-turn in Germany’s pacifist foreign and security policy. Instead of being the usual cautious and conservative force in Europe, Germany has sent anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine, taking the lead in the EU. Most importantly, after starting and losing two world wars in the 20th century and becoming ultra-sensitive to war and conflict, Germany is set to raise its defence spending to 2% of GDP.
During the state capture years, former president Jacob Zuma’s only foreign policy achievement was SA’s membership of the Brics bloc. SA’s potential as the next economic juggernaut, the supposed qualification for Brics membership, was dismal compared to other rising economic powers such as Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico, which were also vying for membership. What sealed the deal for SA was the ANC government’s good relationship with China and with Russia, where most of its senior cadres spent time during exile.
So it was not SA’s economic prowess that prompted the Bric countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to invite Pretoria to join their exclusive club. Geopolitically, they needed SA on board as the regional power leading Africa. And SA’s foreign policy vision aligned with that of the Brics bloc — to promote a multipolar world order to replace the unipolar world order dominated by the US. Ideologically, the Brics countries needed an anti-West, anti-liberal hegemony ally on the world’s stage. And SA has played the role well, racking up an impressive record of voting against initiatives sponsored by Western countries at the UN.
President Cyril Ramaphosa now needs to reassess SA’s radical anti-West stance and role as Brics lackey attacking Western policies. With the global order in flux, SA businesses and civil society ought to begin to openly debate SA’s foreign policy stance. This is not because we should abandon our leadership position in Africa, or that the global order has become any more favourable to small and post-colonial countries. The fight for a fairer global order needs to continue, but it must be executed with more intelligence and greater consideration for SA’s business and economic interests.
Germany, which is to host the G7 summit in June, has just announced that Senegal, SA and India will be the host’s special guests. This is not an accident; we can expect full political and economic pressure to be exerted on the two Brics countries that have thus far closed ranks and not condemned Russia.
The G7 meeting provides an opportunity for Ramaphosa and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to work together to extract maximum concessions from the G7 to address long-standing developing country concerns. What the Russians want is a lifting of sanctions; what the West wants is a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
Representing the two dominant democracies of Africa and Asia, Ramaphosa and Modi might just be the right people to present the negotiation terms to Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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