The “realist” school of international relations thinks the international system is like a jungle where there are neither laws nor a superior authority to enforce it. In this anarchic international system each state is motivated by self-interest.
Given this reality, every state pays lip service to morality and justice but is motivated only by self-preservation. To survive, states must either themselves grow to be more powerful or form alliances with each other so there is strength in numbers against a common threat.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov is a realist. In an interview with the Russia Today Arabic service last week he announced that Saudi Arabia and Argentina had stated their desire to join Brics, the vanguard bloc of leading developing countries made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA.
The announcement of Brics’ potential expansion was backed up a few days later by Wang Wenbin of the Chinese foreign affairs ministry, who said on Friday that “China actively supports the start of the Brics expansion process and broader ‘Brics Plus’ co-operation”.
SA international relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor participated in the first Brics Plus foreign ministers’ dialogue in May, which the foreign ministers of Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Nigeria, Senegal and Thailand were invited to attend. It appears that SA is supportive of Brics expansion and the “Brics Plus” concept. The statement released by the department after the event stated: “It will be recalled that SA initiated the Brics Outreach programme during its first chairship of Brics in 2013. SA continues to champion engagements with our regions as well as other like-minded members of the Global South.”
The New Development Bank established by the Brics countries in 2015 admitted Bangladesh, the UAE, Egypt and Uruguay as official members in 2021, in addition to the five Brics countries. It now appears likely that Saudi Arabia will be admitted as the next full member of Brics. It is the most powerful of the Gulf states and a leader in the Arab world. Saudi Arabia’s hegemonic stature in the Gulf conforms to Brics’ geopolitical aim of establishing a multipolar world order to replace the unipolar order the US built after the end of the Cold War. Brics’ aim is to establish a world order where each region has hegemonic power that can maintain stability in that region.
By this logic it is hard to see Argentina or Nigeria being admitted into Brics Plus, at least not with the same status as Brazil and SA, as this would undermine Brazil and SA’s standing in South America and Africa, respectively. My view is that Indonesia may be the next member of Brics Plus after Saudi Arabia’s membership is confirmed. Indonesia is by far the most populous in Southeast Asia, with the most dynamic economy. China would certainly be keen to have another level of ties with Indonesia as it is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ largest trading partner. Given the rising tensions between China and the West, Southeast Asia is a hotly contested region as the West and China fight to gain influence.
From a SA perspective the exclusivity of Brics, where SA sat at the high table with four other leading developing nations of the South, gave us a great deal of prestige. The regular leaders’ summits and ministerial meetings also gave the SA government a good avenue to gather intelligence and a forum to communicate its stance.
Pretoria needs to assess the costs and benefits of a Brics expansion. On the one hand we need to preserve its exclusivity; on the other admitting regional hegemons such as Saudi Arabia in the Gulf region and Indonesia in Southeast Asia will bring both political heft to the Brics agenda of a multipolar global order as well as more financial resources to the New Development Bank to fulfil its mandate to build infrastructure in developing countries.
• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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