Last week marked the release of the Just Transition Framework of the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC). At the same time a group of 16 civil society organisations made an urgent call on energy minister Gwede Mantashe to fast-track implementation of the remaining renewable energy new-build capacity mandated under his department’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) of 2019.
The call to fast-track the 13,600MW of outstanding renewable energy and the 1,575MW of outstanding storage approved under the IRP would certainly not solve the immediate electricity availability woes, but it could at least provide a time horizon when SA might realistically expect to emerge from this national nightmare.
But the minister has given no signal that any such progressive action is on the cards. If his statements at the Africa Energy Indaba in March are anything to go by, any form of “accelerated transition” will face staunch opposition from his department. Mantashe remains convinced that an accelerated transition is “irrational and dangerous”, and would not place “people and their livelihoods” at the centre of the response.
Here he is of course referring again to the Just Transition Framework that his department is drafting and which the minister has said will be biased towards “mitigating the expected socioeconomic impacts on local mining and energy communities”.
If only the people in these local mining and energy communities knew that the 140,000 jobs they add to the economy were so critical not to put at risk that it’s worth torpedoing the entire economy and putting hundreds of thousands of other workers out of jobs for. I’m sure they’d be flattered.
I’m sure it is of great consolation to the 50% of SA households that the department considers energy poor, that Mantashe is so hell-bent on protecting jobs in the coal-mining sector that he is prepared to sacrifice their ability to access affordable energy on coal’s altar
To those who were involved in the early days of the One Million Climate Jobs campaign from 2010, the perversity of the Orwellian doublespeak we now endure at the hands of our political elite is damn near sickening. The term just transition is bandied about at every opportunity under the guise of protecting “communities”, yet at every turn the solutions to the energy crisis that are lauded by the minister are those that perpetuate flows of wealth to a small group of well-connected elites at the expense of the communities he purports to serve.
At the Mining Indaba in May the minister went on record that nuclear and hydro will be key resources to come online to fill the power supply gap as coal plants close. This though the Council for Scientific & Industrial Research has confirmed with the department that the inclusion of hydro from the Inga Dam results in an additional cost of R1.6bn-R3.3bn a year, while the inclusion of 2,500MW of nuclear capacity results in an additional cost of R8bn-R10bn a year relative to least-cost, faster to implement and (sadly) renewable options.
How does the minister propose to stop these unnecessary extra costs from being passed on to “communities” in yet more tariff hikes? I wonder if the minister is aware that the electricity price increased 753% from 2007 to 2021, more than five and a half times faster than inflation? I’m sure it is of great consolation to the 50% of SA households that the department considers energy poor, that Mantashe is so hell-bent on protecting jobs in the coal-mining sector that he is prepared to sacrifice their ability to access affordable energy on coal’s altar.
The department’s discussion document defines the just transition as the principle of “easing the burden decarbonisation poses to those who depend on high-carbon industries”. Indeed, there are undoubtedly many politically well-connected beneficiaries of unbundled coal assets or coal transport companies that have secured lucrative deals thanks to Transnet’s steady demise who will cry long tears over coal’s demise, but given the utter contempt with which the ANC appears to be treating the rest of us, for the love of God can we please stop pretending this is about communities?
• Maguire is carbon project manager at Climate Neutral Group SA. He writes in his personal capacity.
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