When the All Blacks arrived in SA for the first post-isolation Test match in 1992, they were greeted at the Johannesburg airport by a boisterous throng that advertised confidence in the Springboks with a banner that proclaimed “Welcome to your worst nightmare!”
It never did turn out that way. Though the Boks staged a late comeback to lose by just a couple of points at Ellis Park, the hosts were outplayed for most of the game. Two years later SA’s second post-isolation national coach, Ian McIntosh, discovered the truth in that adage that New Zealand is the graveyard for Bok coaches. The upshot was that the late Kitch Christie was appointed to the position to do an “ambulance job”, something he did successfully as the Boks won the World Cup less than a year later.
Changing coaches in midseason isn’t something completely alien to SA rugby, but it does not happen in New Zealand, which was why the decision to retain Ian Foster as All Black coach for the trip to SA was fairly predictable. Having endorsed Foster ahead of Scott “Razor” Robertson, dropping Foster midterm would be a concession from the New Zealand bosses that they got it wrong.
What was equally predictable though was that they’d find an alternative scapegoat that would help endorse their retention of Foster. They did that by dropping forwards coach John Plumtree and attack coach Brad Mooar, thus sending out the message that Foster wasn’t at fault. It was his helpers who let him down.
I say “they”, and not Foster, as it is unlikely dropping his assistants would have been the head coach’s idea. He would have been given an ultimatum by his bosses along the lines of: “They go, or you go”.
It was a dilemma Peter de Villiers was presented with in 2010, when his Bok team slipped from being Tri-Nations champions to wooden spoonists. De Villiers related in his book, Politically Incorrect, how SA Rugby Union president Oregan Hoskins made it clear to the coach during a heated meeting that his continuation as Bok coach hinged on him being prepared to jettison his assistants Gary Gold and Dick Muir.
It is the way top level professional sport sometimes works when there is a perception of failure: A scapegoat has to be found to placate a public that is demanding some kind of change. Whatever you want to say about De Villiers, he was his own man, and after giving it some thought, he dug his heels in and refused to drop his coaches.
Clearly Foster either wasn’t that loyal or he knew he had no option, but we can believe him when he says he feels for the two guys who have been dropped. It wouldn’t have been his decision and it wouldn’t have been easy for him.
Having now made the change though, the next question follows — what happens if the All Blacks continue to bomb and lose both games against their biggest historical rivals over the next few weeks? Could it be that the historical trend gets reversed and this time SA becomes the graveyard of an All Black coach?
It is hard to imagine what other answer the Kiwi rugby bosses could come up with if the Boks win comprehensively. It wouldn’t be out of place if there was a banner welcoming Foster to his graveyard or something to that effect when they arrive here next week.
It is hard to remember when last an All Black coach and team arrived here under so much pressure. While many are expecting that pressure to make them harder to beat, we shouldn’t automatically assume the Kiwis have the same backs-to-the-wall psychology going for them in this kind of situation that the South Africans do.
The All Blacks are a team that relies a lot for its success on a willingness to take risks, but to do that effectively you need to be confident. The brave cricket that England are playing in the Test arena will only work until they are beaten, and an element of doubt is introduced.
That may be what has happened to the All Blacks. The confidence that drove so much of their success from around 2011 onwards suffered a first dent when the Boks beat them in Wellington in 2018 and then a more significant one when England thrashed them in the 2019 World Cup semifinal.
Further losses to Argentina, SA, Ireland thrice and France since then have further undermined that confidence and the physical approach of the Boks is unlikely to give them any respite or any kind of leg up.
The All Black chances of digging themselves out of their current hole might well depend on whether they can get a lucky break early in the first game in Mbombela that will help them regain some of their confidence and strut. If they don’t, they could well find themselves living the nightmare that banner predicted for them 30 years ago.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.