World leaders are addressing the UN General Assembly this week, and Russia’s war in Ukraine is top of the agenda. It is becoming increasingly clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin has bitten off more than he can chew.
A week ago, at the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the first time openly expressed his misgivings about the war in Ukraine. Modi has up to now held a neutral position, arguing, like the SA government, that this was the only way to maintain open dialogue with Putin. He has had to resist considerable Western pressure as a result.
French President Emmanuel Macron came out in support of Modi, saying he was right to tell Putin that this is not the time for war. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was more blunt: there was “no justification whatsoever” for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said. “Putin will only give up his war and his imperialist ambitions if he realises that he cannot win.”
Just in case Putin was not listening carefully enough, Scholz went on to pledge, in front of the world's leaders, the might of the German economy to provide financial, economic and humanitarian aid, as well as weapons to the Ukrainians so they can defeat Russia.
The SCO is the Eurasian equivalent of the Southern African Development Community. It was started in 1996 by China, Russia and the central Asian republics of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, to build mutual trust and ensure regional security.
It has grown over the years, incorporating India and Pakistan in 2017, and has become the pre-eminent regional security organisation, with the primary purpose of containing security threats. In short, at the SCO Russia is among friends and partners.
Anywhere else Putin can dismiss criticism of his war — sorry, “special military operation” — as the misguided rantings of double-standard Western imperialists, but he cannot dismiss concern expressed at an SCO Summit. Nor can he ignore the counsel of Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who are also Brics partners.
India and China are clearly not Western stooges; they hold similar world views on the West to Russia and are the only great powers left on the world stage that Russia can lean on. At the SCO summit, Putin said he understood Xi’s questions and concern about the war on Ukraine.
Humiliating withdrawal
He went a step further with Modi, saying at a televised meeting that “I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, the concern that you constantly express... We will do everything to stop this as soon as possible.”
Given Russia’s recent battlefield setbacks in Ukraine and the new reality that it does not have Chinese and Indian political or military support, it is hard to see how Putin can end the war without withdrawing his troops in humiliation.
In the same way that the long war Afghanistan fatally weakened the Soviet Union, the war in Ukraine may well be Putin’s swansong. Similarly, just as Finland won a moral victory in 1943 by holding the poorly trained invading Red Army at bay for far longer than anyone expected and causing significant Soviet casualties, Ukraine has already won on the global stage by holding firm — and even pushing back against all odds.
From an SA perspective the war in Ukraine has shown that the ANC is equally inept at international relations as it is at governing at home. International relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor initially condemned the invasion, before President Cyril Ramaphosa forced a quick U-turn to avoid criticising a Brics partner.
India and China have used their neutral position on the war to tell Putin what he needs to hear. Meanwhile, SA has made empty rhetorical calls for negotiations but has ultimately done nothing to put pressure on Putin to go to the negotiating table.
• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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