After my previous column, bemoaning the absence of any mention in SA’s key positions for the COP27 climate negotiations of article 6 market-based solutions processes, our company thought it wise to send me to Egypt to engage in person with the SA delegation among others.
At the best of times these negotiations are a confusing whirlwind of activity in which one can easily get swept up in the cacophony of parallel events, pronouncements, protests, launches and side-meetings. At this COP the general confusion was heightened by shoddy communications by the organisers, the inaudibility of discussions thanks to industrial grade air-conditioning systems and general crankiness among delegates, who could find neither food nor drink for the first four days of the event.
However, one does not trek to the annual global meeting deciding the future of humanity for shits and giggles. So despite the distractions one must focus through the noise to hear what is really going on. What I heard was not heartening.
A year ago, at COP26 in Glasgow, the mantra “Keep 1.5 alive” held sway, referring to the imperative of keeping the average global temperature increase below 1.5 °C. At this COP a new, far less catchy slogan has begun to insinuate itself into the language of the day — “Every fraction matters”, with alarming implications for humanity’s future.
The reason for the concern is that beyond 1.5 °C of warming four of the major climate tipping points move from being possible to likely, with cascading effects on our climate regime. Of these the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and northern permafrost thaw are of the highest concern, as the first two may be sufficient on their own to stop the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) system. This is the system of weather-regulating ocean currents that carry warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic. As for the permafrost, reaching this tipping point may be sufficient to drive global warming beyond our control altogether.
Thanks to Vladimir Putin’s delusions of grandeur, governments at this year’s COP have been raising the war in Ukraine and associated impacts, including inflation, cost-of-living concerns and the global energy crisis, as obstacles to action. The UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2022, released last month, reads that updated pledges since COP26 in Glasgow take less than 1% off projected 2030 greenhouse gas emissions. Under the current best-case scenario, with full implementation of unconditional nationally determined contributions with additional net-zero emissions commitments, we are looking at a 1.8 °C rise.
Nature-based solutions
Despite the ominous undertone, some promising developments have taken place, such as US President Joe Biden’s address on Friday, in which he renewed the commitment by the world’s second-biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses to meet emissions reduction targets by 2030. Washington and the EU also issued a joint declaration alongside Japan, Canada, Norway, Singapore and Britain, pledging more action to build on an international deal launched last year to cut economywide emissions by 30% in about 130 countries this decade, leaving us 15% short of the reductions required to “keep 1.5 alive”.
Of particular interest was the high level of attention given at the event to nature-based solutions to climate change, and the pressure being applied by business groups to find solutions to the hurdles slowing down progress on the article 6 carbon market mechanism. With this was the launch of a report from the UN’s high-level expert group on the net zero emissions commitments of nonstate entities that is set to tighten controls on net zero greenwashing and provide a guide to ensure credible, accountable net zero pledges.
With UN Framework Convention on Climate Change executive secretary Simon Stiell and COP president Sameh Shoukry now cracking the whip, it seems there may still be hope for these negotiations. However, the ambition gap remains wide and the clock is ticking.
• Maguire is carbon project manager at Climate Neutral Group SA. He writes in his personal capacity.
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