This year began with the burning of parliament. It looked like it was going to end with the torching of the Ramaphosa presidency.
This being my last column for the year, and given my penchant for scenarios, I thought I should not get caught up with the immediate but rather focus on the issues that are likely to dominate our lives next year.
To begin with, the buffalo in the room: Mapungubwe Institute director Joel Netshitenzhe has bravely argued that, having won the ANC internal election in December and while still facing investigations around Phala Phala, Cyril Ramaphosa may “rally the majority in 2024 and then intensify the reform drive — unchained from the inhibitions that often characterise first terms in political office”.
While our ubercompetitive and noisy democracy will remain focused on the 2024 elections, I expect civil society to continue building on its various efforts. This includes the still elitist Defend Our Democracy rooting itself, while the civil society alliance being welded by the Kagiso Trust, and grassroots bodies such as Abahlali baseMjondolo and the Ahmed Kathrada Foundation, are being strengthened.
Civil society’s halo has been pricked by its dark side, as in Operation Dudula and its xenophobic attacks. Political parties such as Action SA will use xenophobic rhetoric to boost their support, trying to paint the ANC as soft on migration. The ANC should not succumb to such trashy behaviour.
With our economy having gone back to pre-Covid-19 levels, and unemployment beginning to inch downwards, there is a small possibility of 2023 ending in a far better space than we are in now.
Friend-shoring
This will be directly affected by global developments, especially trade wars between the US and China, the world still grappling with the Covid-19 pandemic, the effect of climate change and the war in Ukraine, making this, according to Fitch Solutions, “arguably the most economically disruptive period since World War 2”.
US treasury secretary Janet Yellen popularised the phrase “friend-shoring”, a trend that will continue to be strengthened around the alliances that are being built on both sides of the global rivalry divide. This does not mean the world is on a one-way ticket to deglobalisation: a recent US-China Business Council poll showed that almost 80% of US corporates in China have not moved any part of their operations from China over the past 12 months, though more than 20% did indicate uncertainty about that commitment over the next five years.
High inflation, food insecurity and a cost-of-living crisis will continue to plague most parts of the world, especially as the US and Europe slip into recession amid aggressive rate hikes. While China may be lucky enough to avoid recession, it will probably record its weakest growth outside the Covid-19 pandemic period.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook suggests growth will slow for emerging markets from 6.8% in 2021 to 3.6% this year. This is a direct effect of slowdowns in the developed world, as well as increasing import prices. Sri Lanka spectacularly defaulted this year, and there probably will be others in 2023.
In Africa, of the seven elections to be held in 2023, the most consequential will be the Nigerian presidential poll slated for February 25. The incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari, cannot stand, having served two terms already. As Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria matters. As The Economist noted, “a prospering Nigeria helps pull up its neighbours; a stumbling one drags them down”.
The chances of the candidacy of Peter Obi of the Labour Party succeeding against the two status quo frontrunners are slim, but if the 61-year-old billionaire is able to carry the momentum that is buoying him forward, he could well be the antidote to corruption and stasis that Nigeria needs.
I have not yet mentioned the impending natural disasters that await us over the next few years, in addition to the social unrest that continues to threaten SA. Eternal optimist that I am, I have no doubt that we will rise through all those. After all, we have — almost — survived 2022.
• Abba Omar is director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute.
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