“Imminent” and “inevitable” are two words that should haunt members of the governing ANC this weekend as they gather for the party’s 55th national conference to elect new leaders and chart the path forward for the next five years.
As about 4,000 delegates make their way to Johannesburg’s Nasrec on Friday, they have to confront the reality that their party, which helped liberate SA from apartheid, is deeply divided, weak and perilously close to losing power in two years’ time.
Two critical topics are on the agenda: they have to elect new leaders and they have to take stock of progress made in implementing resolutions adopted in 2017 when Cyril Ramaphosa, present party leader, beat Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to win the presidential race.
Only a few resolutions have been implemented, mostly for the sake of expedience to regain voters’ waning trust in the ANC. For example, it has taken years for the party, deeply mired in corruption, to deal with leaders implicated in sleaze and force them to step aside.
Ace Magashule, secretary-general and member of the radical economic transformation faction, has been the most high-profile victim of the application of the step aside rule after being charged with corruption in the high court in Bloemfontein. As a result, he won’t be attending the conference and is not allowed to stand for any position. That is, of course, if the controversial step-aside rule is confirmed by the delegates and embedded in the party’s constitution.
Curiously, the rule applies only to party positions, not state posts. For example, Zandile Gumede, the powerful ANC eThekwini leader and former mayor, stepped aside from her party position but continues as a member of the provincial legislature. Similarly, Mandla Msibi, a murder accused in Mpumalanga, stepped aside from his ANC post but still serves as a provincial MP.
Critics have cynically branded this approach a public relations exercise designed to create a veneer of tackling corruption while ANC deployees keep enjoying their state perks. The other resolution implemented is a grudging downgrading of relations with Israel.
Critically, the most controversial resolutions from the 54th national conference haven’t been implemented and are unlikely to see the light of day if the present leadership is re-elected. Two such resolutions are worth noting: the SA Reserve Bank has not been nationalised and is unlikely to be any time soon; and the clumsy and halfhearted ANC attempt to amend the constitution to allow for land to be expropriated without compensation has failed.
Also, the state bank remains a pipe dream. These failures will be used by the anti-Ramaphosa faction of the ANC to try to force out the leadership at the weekend. The president’s faction has also been accused of selective application of the step-aside rule to purge his enemies.
The party goes to this all-important conference at its weakest ever. It is broke (its employees sometimes go for months without being paid), its structures are in a state of disarray, its youth, veterans and women’s leagues are run by unelected task teams, and its Western Cape chapter has been unable to hold a conference.
Voters are also increasingly rejecting it. In the 2021 municipal elections the ANC lost control of three Gauteng metros — Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni. Instead of becoming a formidable opposition, it has sought to destabilise these councils.
The two party presidential candidates — Ramaphosa and national executive committee member Zweli Mkhize — have clouds hanging over their heads. Mkhize was sacked as health minister after a tender scandal in the health department. The ANC integrity commission has asked him to step aside.
In June, former state Security Agency head Arthur Fraser laid a criminal complaint against Ramaphosa, accusing him of failing to report a burglary and theft of $580,000 at his Phala Phala game farm. The issue is now a subject of investigations by the Hawks, Reserve Bank, public protector and SA Revenue Service.
On November 30, an independent panel appointed by National Assembly speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula and chaired by former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo found that there is a prima facie case for Ramaphosa to answer in parliament. On Tuesday, the parliamentary ANC voted against the report, saving him — at least for now — from facing an impeachment hearing. This despite some ANC MPs voting for the report’s adoption.
Ramaphosa, who considered resigning a week ago after the report’s release, has approached the Constitutional Court to have the panel’s report set aside. The party’s national executive committee, which considered the integrity reports on Mkhize and Ramaphosa, decided that this weekend’s conference should discuss both reports.
Regardless of who wins the leadership contest this weekend, the ANC’s divisions are set to continue and deepen after the conference.
• Dludlu, a former Sowetan editor, is CEO of the Small Business Institute.
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