So, has a Russian-flagged commercial ship just loaded up artillery or explosive or propellant at the Simon’s Town naval base in the middle of Moscow’s war on Ukraine, or have we been bamboozled into assuming the worst by a cockup rather than a conspiracy? Or has it all been a little bit of both?
The surprise appearance of the Lady R in Simon’s Town on December 6 quickly set tongues wagging, especially as Cape Town’s port is close by and the governing ANC has made clear its sympathy for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US embassy in Pretoria said the SA authorities had been warned the ship was under US sanctions and that assisting it might invite US retaliation.
The Lady R is unimpressive. It is a smallish ro-ro (roll on, roll off) freighter, designed mainly for wheeled cargo, built in 2004. It snuck into Simon’s Town, escorted by two SA Navy warships, under the cover of darkness. And now, more than a week later, neither the navy nor the department of defence has bothered to explain what the ship was doing in a national key point.
We can probably take it for granted that both the Russians and the department of defence were up to no good. But can we conclude that this was in any way a significant transfer of weapons from either side?
DA leader John Steenhuisen set the grounds for suspicion when he asked in parliament a few months ago whether SA was selling weapons or ammunition to Russia. That seems unlikely. Russia would have no need of small rounds, and the only artillery shells or propellants produced in SA are made by Rheinmetall-Denel Munitions (RDM), a company 51% owned by Denel’s German partner. It would be unthinkable for the company to sell weapons to the Russians.
And it’s technically improbable too. Nato members account for more than 90% of RDM’s market. Nato uses a 155mm shell. The Russians use the former Soviet 152mm shell as standard.
That doesn’t mean the frenzied night-time activity around the Lady R for the Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights was innocent. Either through incompetence or design, the ship was unloaded only at night. With load-shedding deepening the darkness, floodlights on and around the Lady R virtually ensured the entire sea-facing population of Simon’s Town could see it being unloaded.
The base is, anyway, surrounded by retired sailors or people with a military interest. The Russian visit would have been watched through hundreds of pairs of binoculars. The cargo came off on pallets, which were then transferred to containers on the back of civilian trucks, guarded by military personnel. During the day the trucks and their containers would park near the base. At night they loaded up and drove off.
So, what was going on? “What they almost certainly unloaded,” DA shadow defence minister Kobus Marais tells me, “was ammunition.” Inundated with calls and messages as the defence force kept its mouth firmly shut during the visit, Marais calculates that seven containers arrived at and left the pier during the three nights. They were all sent to the large SA National Defence Force ammunition depot at Naboomspruit in Limpopo.
The Lady R left the base quite publicly on the Friday morning. It returned to the Agulhas Bank and then moved off in the direction of Dar es Salaam, which is what its sailing plan indicated. It now appears certain to be heading for Istanbul, through the Suez Canal, and back into the Black Sea.
Interestingly, the ship began its journey in the Black Sea. But if its job was to deliver Russian ammunition for SA special forces (which sometimes use Russian weaponry in operations in the rest of Africa) why did it not come here more directly, south through the Suez? Instead it sailed through the Mediterranean, around West Africa and docked at Douala, the port city capital of Cameroon, before rounding the Cape.
Cameroon has actively cultivated military ties with Russia in the past few years and the country borders the Central African Republic, where the big Russian mercenary Wagner group is fighting rebel groups opposed to President Faustin-Archange Touadera.
In the absence of a plausible explanation from defence minister Thandi Modise though, speculation about the Lady R is politically and diplomatically toxic to the government and the country. Did the president know about the Lady R’s visit in advance? Was it a private job? An ANC job? Will the ammunition offloaded in Simon’s Town now be exported, or could it be used to kill South Africans?
The SA military has form in this regard, spending more than R200m on a supposed Covid drug from Cuba for use in SA before being forced to send the drugs back. And the government is playing fast and loose with its support for the Russians in Ukraine. Foreign minister Naledi Pandor is in Washington this week attending US president Joe Biden’s Africa summit.
SA clings to its enormous trade privileges with the US under the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa) by a thread. Agoa allows us to export duty free into the US. That includes everything from oranges to cars. Our exports to the US totalled almost $13bn last year, which is why Pandor is there. Was she blindsided by the Lady R visit? We exported just $410m worth of goods to Russia in the same period. You’d think that would matter.
• Bruce is a former editor of Business Day and the Financial Mail.
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