Ordinarily, a visit to Africa by a senior US minister should be a big deal. It should significantly move the dial in trade, investment, humanitarian and aid relations with the host country. But this week’s Africa visit by Janet Yellen, the US finance minister, is unlikely to yield much.
Yellen, former head of the US Federal Reserve, is due to start a three-nation working visit including SA, Senegal and Zambia. Later in the year her boss, President Joe Biden, his deputy Kamala Harris, US trade representative Katherine Tai and commerce secretary Gina Raimondo will visit the continent.
Officially, Yellen’s visit — following on the one by secretary of state Antony Blinken last year — is meant to demonstrate the Biden-Harris Africa strategy. The differentiator of this fresh approach is twofold: to de-emphasise competition with China and Russia, and to shift US co-operation with Africa towards trade and investment. In December, Biden pledged investments worth $55bn in a summit with African leaders.
In reality, however, the rise of China — not so much Russia — remains firmly on the radar of US foreign policy calculus. The timing of Yellen’s visit says it all: it coincides with the annual Africa visit by Chinese foreign minister Qing Gang. The choice of countries is also interesting: in Senegal, President Macky Sall is seeking a third term, and Zambia’s new president, Hakainde Hichilema, has taken over a country with public debt of more than 100% of GDP it is struggling to repay. In Senegal, the message will be to dissuade Sall and his allies from clinging to power for a third term. This is unlikely to be heeded.
Over the years up to the Covid-19 outbreak China’s foreign policy was driven by the Belt and Road Initiative, an ambitious infrastructure investment programme that would connect China to world markets and forge closer ties with various governments. In the process, highly concessionary state-backed loans were extended to African countries. In a way, this is what Washington seeks to counter.
In SA, Yellen hopes to persuade local authorities to accelerate the shift from coal-fired power stations towards clean energy sources such as wind and solar power. Her trip includes a visit to Mpumalanga, which hosts much of SA’s coal reserves. As in Zambia and Senegal, Yellen’s efforts are unlikely to move the dial because of a range of factors.
Key among these are the influence of mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ally and enforcer who was strengthened when he was returned as party chair during December’s ANC elective conference, albeit with a thin margin. Not only is he a big fan of coal, but his power derives from the role he played in protecting Ramaphosa from opponents who wanted to oust the president over the scandal sparked by the theft of nearly $500,000 in cash from his Phala Phala farm.
Delegates at the ANC’s 55th conference were lukewarm to the need for a transition to renewables and noncoal-generated energy. There they are on the same side as the left-leaning parties in parliament, such as Julius Malema’s EFF. The Left is vehemently opposed to both the pace of the transition as well as the West’s $8bn facility to help finance SA’s transition to clean energy. Alongside the EU and UK, the US is one of the major contributors to this fund.
With Ramaphosa having survived a parliamentary inquiry into the Phala Phala scandal, at least for now, opposition parties are hoping to use the $8bn to make his political life miserable. In November they asked him to explain the rationale for the fund. Talks over this money — pejoratively seen as a “bribe” to kill Eskom — have stalled and will be increasingly difficult to get over the line as the 2024 general election approaches. The growing role in SA of the West, including the World Bank, is an unpopular cause among ANC supporters.
The timing of Yellen’s visit is awkward as it coincides with the intensification of power cuts because of regular breakdowns of SA’s mainly coal-fired power plants. Yet for most South Africans, especially the poor and small business owners, Eskom remains their best, if diminishing, hope of keeping the lights on.
Washington’s overtures to Africa are likely to fail because of factors that have little to do with Africa’s focus on its pressing domestic agenda. It is the US’s own fault that it lost the race to court Africa through trade, investment, aid and military support. For four years while Donald Trump was in the White House the US backpedalled on its humanitarian, military and trade role in global affairs. Africa was a major casualty of this myopic strategy.
Perhaps more importantly, the US’s latest moves coincide with China’s return to the world after a self-imposed exile as a result of its zero-Covid policy. This relied on locking down cities to suppress the spread of the virus, which resurged in the last quarter of 2022. On January 8 most of the restrictions were lifted, signalling China’s return to the world. This means China’s slowing economy will resume its consumption of Africa’s commodities.
In the past African countries have found the West, including the US, too transactional in its relationship with them. In part this is what drove some to the warm embrace of China, which despite the size of its economy continues to regard itself as a developing country. Sadly, Yellen, Blinken, Biden and Harris will learn that it’s too late to regain all the ground that has been lost.
• Dludlu, a former Sowetan editor, is CEO of the Small Business Institute.
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