MAMOKETE LIJANE: Rather worry about power move than drink charlatans’ Cool-Aid

As I read the state of the nation speech, the question in my mind was, as always, whether what the president outlined would deliver real progress, especially on the energy crisis.

We live in a complex world and in complex societies. We rely on “experts” to make decisions on our behalf and guide our decision-making. I am not an expert in electricity. What are my opinions on the president’s announcements regarding the power sector really worth?

Individuality and individual responsibility are revered in our society. We assume that the wisest and most intelligent of us, the most prepared, will reap the rewards of their labour and endowments. We read more books, attend more classes and learn from more experts, and we mostly convince ourselves that thus armed we will be superior thinkers.

While not exactly experts, we believe we can know enough to make informed decisions. Yet we fool ourselves, because even the exceptional among us are still specialists. Bernie Madoff perpetrating a relatively unsophisticated multidecade fraud on Wall Street, and Markus Jooste pulling the wool over the eyes of arguably one of the most respected SA businesspeople, should teach us that even the most learnt around us are flying blind. But we persist in the fiction that we can know far more than is possible.

A person’s brain can only hold and process so much information, yet every day we make big and often life-changing decisions knowing little about the factors that will affect the outcome. Who to marry, which political party to vote for, where to live, where to send our children to school, what diet to follow and a myriad other decisions are made with little knowledge about how those things will actually work and how the future will unfold. We have psychological crutches that help us make these decisions without being overwhelmed by anxiety. One of these crutches is trust. When we cannot trust, we become anxious.

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The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines trust as: “assured reliance on the character, ability, strength or truth of someone or something.” The only decision average (and above-average) citizens can make on most the most important issues of their lives is who to trust. In a democratic country at a national political level, this is best expressed in which political party one votes for. On a personal level it might be which doctor you consult and where you send your child to school. In the public discourse about SA’s electricity crisis, it could be which expert you listen to: Matshela Koko or Chris Yelland?

I am not an engineer and know little about electricity. I don’t understand how power generation works. I could not begin to think about the correct power mix or energy regulation. I cannot offer an analysis of whether Karpowerships are the solution to SA’s power problems. I have to rely on experts I trust to form an opinion on these matters. More important than what we believe will be who we believe. I know who I do not trust, starting with Koko. However, it is not easy to know who to trust.

Debates about energy and other policies are awash with experts with varying levels of credibility saying conflicting things. Meanwhile the battle for political capital to support various policy approaches rages. The charlatans sow mistrust. They know we want simple answers to complex problems and desire, most of all, to lower our anxiety. They know we want to say we know, even when we do not. If we follow our urges and drink their Cool Aid, we might enable them to exploit us once again.

Living in a complex, low-trust environment is stressful. Let us rather stay anxious than allow charlatans to use us. That was a rather long way of saying, I don’t know whether the president’s announced measures will lead to an improvement in the power crisis. I will wait and see.

• Lijane is a macro strategist.