Dateline: February 28 2030

In a revolutionary shift, for the first time since the move towards distributed power began in the early 1920s, energy generated by minigrids has officially outstripped large power stations in the US.

After the global energy crisis sparked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the growing urgency to move away from fossil fuels, the world saw widespread adoption of small-scale renewable power — predominantly rooftop and parking lot solar systems.

As private production ramped up, some power companies saw the writing on the wall and began rewiring their business models — pivoting to an “energy-as-a-service” (EaaS) supplier concept. Utilities scaled back new power station builds and upgrades. By retraining and redeploying workers, innovative EaaS players were able to install and maintain custom minigrids at consumers’ homes and businesses. For consumers, it meant greater energy security and lower cost, while utilities got new capacity without the enormous, fixed overheads of centralised power plants.

Power companies are now closer to their renewable energy mandates, and have achieved it with a much smaller investment in grid infrastructure upgrades. Though some grid upgrades were necessary to enable the shift, the “big bang” rebuild initially expected did not materialise. This, coupled with lower overheads for utilities, has resulted in improved profit margins alongside a reduction in carbon emissions.

Almost a decade in the making, the shift to minigrids required substantial foresight and visionary thinking on the part of both the utilities and government. Without the fast-tracked legislative changes and investment in initial grid upgrades needed, we might have found ourselves in the dark.

And what’s the use of a revolution that doesn’t bring power to the people? /First published in Mindbullets February 23 2023

Solar power goes viral

Rooftop, backyard and portable solar is the new meme

Dateline: March 15 2022

The biggest energy revolution in 150 years has arrived gradually, then suddenly. Now it’s here. Personal solar power has displaced central utilities for individuals, homes and small businesses.

What’s more, large businesses and corporate campuses are also contributing to the energy internet, sharing their excess power in slack times, and buying back from the smart grid when they need to. Utility-scale generation has shrunk to essential services only, heavily subsidised by the government.

The remarkable thing is, this revolution in energy did not come from organised business or government programmes, or even environmental groups. Like the smartphone boom, it was driven by innovation and empowered individuals. Like a YouTube video or a Facebook meme, solar just went viral.

Africans were the first to embrace cheap, portable solar packs, mainly to charge their phones and give them reading light at night. Most villages in Africa still do not have grid power, and LED lighting and phones are invariably kept going with batteries and small solar panels.

At the other end of the scale, Californians, Australians and Germans have embraced rooftop solar in a big way; nowadays you just don’t design a roof without considering where the panels will go.

It’s a culture shift which was evident to future-thinkers, but has caught many old-school utilities and state-owned enterprises off guard. There is just no demand for traditional “baseload” power any more. /First published in Mindbullets March 10 2016

• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.