On the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing finally showed its hand: it released a 12-point plan on how the conflict could be resolved. This should be interrogated and engaged on its merits by the international community as part of fresh efforts to end this seemingly unwinnable war.
The Chinese plan dropped in an increasingly polarised environment. Russia, which has so far failed to bomb its neighbour into submission, was preparing a fresh assault on Ukraine with reinforcements including mercenaries. The West, which has stood by Ukraine, has pledged to send it more artillery. A week ago, US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv to show solidarity, and a few days ago treasury secretary Janet Yellen was in the country to pledge support for Ukrainians to continue with a semblance of normality amid the misery that has been caused by the war.
The conflict has divided the world. The West has sided with the people of Ukraine, while much of the developing world, including Africa, have stayed on the fence. Others, including Pretoria, have preached a negotiated settlement but done little to bring it about.
The missing piece in the puzzle has been China’s posture. For much of 2022 Chinese president Xi Jinping stayed silent, appearing distracted by two main domestic issues. He needed to cement his position at the Chinese Communist Party’s congress, which as expected confirmed him for another term, if not longer; and the resurgence of Covid-19 and further lockdowns of large parts of China required his full focus, especially as people and economic operators appeared fatigued by repeated rounds of restrictions.
These two issues are now out of the way: Xi’s position is guaranteed, China has lifted the remaining Covid-19 restrictions, and its economy is open to the world again. Xi now has time for other strategic issues.
Russia is an important partner to China from both a trade and a military co-operation point of view. The two countries, or more appropriately Xi and Vladimir Putin of Russia, enjoy warm relations. It is not evident that people-to-people relations between Russia and China are as close, but trade and security bind the two countries.
Both are members of the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA) bloc, a counterpoint to the Western-led liberal order that includes the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), the main platform for support for Ukraine. Although Brics is an economic development and co-operation bloc, Russia and China have strong military ties.
The West, which is involved in other skirmishes with China, has been anxious about the prospect of China joining the war on Moscow’s side, specifically by helping to arm Russia. This will be a global catastrophe and could easily turn what has been seen as a cold war into a hot war of note. This should not be allowed to happen.
That is why it is unfortunate that Beijing’s peace proposal has been met with scepticism and ridicule. This is as unhelpful to defuse an already volatile situation as suggestions by Western intelligence sources that China will probably arm Russia. As an initial conversation starter, there is actually much to consider in the document.
Of the 12 points proposed, nine are not controversial and have been raised in the past year by other progressive diplomats and those committed to a peaceful solution. These include ending hostilities through a ceasefire; resuming peace talks; resolving the humanitarian crisis, with the UN playing a co-ordinating role in channelling humanitarian aid to conflict zones; protecting civilians and prisoners of war; keeping nuclear power plants safe (with the International Atomic Energy Agency ensuring the safety and security of peaceful nuclear facilities); reducing strategic risks, especially the use of nuclear weapons, and ending nuclear proliferation; facilitating grain exports; keeping industrial and supply chains stable; and promoting postconflict reconstruction.
The framing of the causes of the war and its prosecution, including the use of economic sanctions, is controversial and, as seen in the past few weeks, is unlikely to be unanimously endorsed. Still, lack of agreement on them or the tone and content of what caused the war cannot be deal-breakers. A more progressive approach would be to start with the less controversial ones and build on them, isolating the sticking points for detailed negotiation.
Also helpful would be to de-escalate the bellicose rhetoric sparked by the balloon wars between the US and China. Fortunately, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has kept an open mind on China’s proposal, even expressing willingness to meet with Xi. The Chinese president should seize the moment. A symbolically important step would be Xi flying to Kyiv for this meeting.
With its new status as a superpower, China needs to act the part and, more importantly, needs to exercise its power responsibly. This also means actively selling and explaining its 12-point plan to the world community despite it having been treated with derision by some.
For its part, the global community needs to engage the plan on its merits instead of focusing on its origins and supposed motives.
• Dludlu, a former Sowetan editor, is CEO of the Small Business Institute.
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