It was announced last week that Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two goliaths in the Middle East that have been butting heads over the past few years, will re-establish diplomatic relations and have ambassadors reappointed within two months. Yet there are thorny issues between the two sides, not the least of which is the proxy war the two are fighting in Yemen.
Negotiations have been ongoing for some time, facilitated by Iraq. But it was interesting to see the two sides — represented by Saudi minister of state and national security adviser Musaed bin Al Aiban and Iranian Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Shamkhani — shaking hands in front of the press in Beijing together with Wang Yi, director of the office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party. These are the three countries’ most senior international affairs officials.
As always in international diplomacy, it is complicated. Overall, it is a positive that a Middle Eastern conflict will de-escalate. However, this detente can be seen as a setback for Israel, which together with the US has been working hard to cast Iran as a fundamentalist nuclear rogue state and isolate it regionally and internationally. That Iran and Saudi Arabia are no longer at each other’s throats means increased security risk for Israel.
This can also be seen as a setback for the Biden administration in Washington as Saudi Arabia snubbed its traditional ally and turned to Beijing to be the international power broker and peacemaker. Traditionally the West has been the major power broker, and this development sends a clear message that the era of Western domination in the Middle East has passed.
This is not the first time China has played international peacemaker. A decade ago, as a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed postdoctoral researcher in peace and conflict studies, I went to Juba, South Sudan, to interview South Sudanese, Western and Chinese officials in an attempt to understand the emerging Chinese peacemaking efforts in the newest African nation.
At the time South Sudan was in a stand-off with Sudan on how much it had to pay for transiting oil through its neighbour. Later, South Sudan descended into civil war. Chinese, Western and African countries were all involved in negotiation and mediation efforts.
What I found then was that China was a reluctant participant. Beijing had to be involved because its national oil company was by far the largest foreign investor in the country. At the time Chinese officials were not confident that they understand local and regional politics and were reluctant to get too involved.
Beijing was also wary of inadvertently stepping on the toes of Western powers with vested interests. Based on this research trip I recorded my findings and assessments in a book, Chinese Peace in Africa: From Peacekeeper to Peacemaker, which was published in 2020.
Ten years after my research China is in a very different place. It is confident that it understands Middle East politics well enough, it wants to play a leadership role in peacemaking, and Beijing is no longer fearful of inadvertently stepping on Western toes. Toes have now been stood on, and it hurt.
From our vantage point in SA it is not necessarily a bad thing that Beijing is becoming more involved in Middle Eastern politics. After all, it is China — no longer the US — that is the largest consumer of oil from the Middle East. It is expected to play a greater role in fostering peace in the region both because it needs to shoulder international responsibility as a global player, and in its national security interest of stable oil supply.
Perhaps China will be able to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiation table too.
• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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