On Friday the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It has determined that there is enough evidence that Moscow has kidnapped hundreds of Ukrainian children to prosecute Putin for war crimes.
This is a big moment in an strained geopolitical time. Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Moscow this week in a symbolic show of support, and Germany announced last week that its foreign minister will visit Taiwan — an expression of the West’s recognition of Taiwan’s right to govern itself.
This escalating sabre-rattling can feel distant, but in fact we need to note its proximity. SA is a signatory to the ICC, and if Putin comes here we are duty-bound to arrest him.
On Tuesday last week President Cyril Ramaphosa accepted letters of credence from acting ambassadors. In doing so, new diplomats posted to Pretoria were formally welcomed to SA and recognised as heads of their countries’ missions.
Diplomatic sources tell me it was a weird affair. It was the first such ceremony in at least six months, so 18 not-so-new diplomats had to queue to meet the president. As if the long wait was not already skating on the thin ice of disrespect, I’m told the new ambassadors were asked by officials of the department in international relations & co-operation (Dirco) not to speak to the president at all during the ceremony. That’s rather odd.
Problem within Dirco?
If the credentials ceremony is anything to go by I wonder whether there is a problem within Dirco. Among the ambassadors who were asked not to talk to Ramaphosa on Tuesday were the representatives of Japan and Australia. These are important international partners.
At an event last week at the embassy of Japan to celebrate its national day and the emperor’s birthday, the new ambassador welcomed a large gathering of international representatives, media and businesspeople. The global economy’s third biggest player was acknowledged by the presence of a deputy minister of public works. That’s a cold shoulder, at best.
It is alarming that these issues affect the countries for which we would expect the government to roll out the red carpet in Africa and Asia. This suggests there could be competence or capacity issues at Dirco just as it is about to head into a busy and high-profile season of intense diplomatic activity in which it would be best to be on its toes.
In a little over four months SA will host the Brics summit. Not to put too fine a point on it, that means presidents Xi and Putin plan to come to Pretoria — and SA will find itself running the show in the white-hot heat of some of the most febrile international politics in decades.
To start another fire in this already hot kitchen, Dirco will have just a year after the Brics summit to prepare to host the G20, also in SA starting in January 2025 and running for months. The shape of anything beyond the 2024 election is unknowable, but to have the G20 in town presents logistical challenges for any country. Scores of heads of state from the G20 and beyond will be joined by high-level delegations from all over the world for something like 60 or 70 forums. As the kids say, it's a lot.
Dirco can also expect an altogether different kind of scrutiny. Recent events suggest the country will also come under pressure to shift its ideological stance. Our navy’s recent war-games with Russia and China, the mystery of the Lady R (which the New York Times said may have been moving munitions from SA to Russia), our abstentions from UN votes calling on Russia to stop its attacks on Ukraine, and our welcoming of Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov here, all indicate that the state is taking up the ideological position laid out in the international relations chapter of the ANC’s conference resolutions from December.
This is clearly laid out: “This can no longer be described simply as a Russia-Ukraine war — it is primarily a conflict between the US and US-led Nato and Russia.” It goes on: “This is why the US provoked the war with Russia over Ukraine, hoping to put Russia in its place. The peace and ‘free market economy’ dividends promised at the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s have been shattered. The Western imperialist dominance over Eastern Europe is being advanced not through free trade and open competition for markets, but through US-led expansionist military strategies.”
Both sides want SA
So, the Brics summit not only looms as a gigantic organisational challenge but it also seems there could be a brewing storm in which this country is pulled between two rapidly diverging and hostile axes of international power. Both sides want SA on their team. The ICC’s charges against Putin will put a laser-like focus on us should he choose to come here, as we are a signatory to the Rome Statute. We will be expected to arrest and deport him, but we have form; in 2015 the Zuma administration allowed genocide-accused Sudanese president Omar Al Bashir to leave the country.
This is a pressure point that makes us vulnerable. Over the coming 18 months our diplomatic, security and organisational mettle will be tested like no time since the 1990s. It has the potential to be extremely taxing for Pretoria.
I wonder how ready Dirco is for the heat.
• Parker is Business Day editor-in-chief.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.