STEVEN KUO: Pretoria should cut its losses and focus on the G20

There was a minor media frenzy a few weeks ago when it transpired that President Cyril Ramaphosa had not been invited to the Group of Seven (G7) summit next week in Hiroshima, Japan. Much was made of the fact that Prime Minister Kishida Fumio had chosen to invite AU representatives rather than SA.  

My Japanese friends will be too polite to say so, but I am free to provide my opinion: I think the ANC sees Japan as a part of the West that supported apartheid. After all, Japanese people were famously classified as “honorary whites” by the apartheid government. It is shortsighted of the ANC to do so, and to align itself with those it sees as fraternal revolutionary movements — the Russians, Cubans and Palestinians — and allow ideology to dictate foreign policy. 

There is no arguing against the fact that Japan was a major investor and economic player in apartheid SA. Much of the country’s infrastructure — the turbines in the power plants, engines and rolling stock on the railway lines, and motor manufacturing facilities — was Japanese. During apartheid and still today, Japan was and continues to be a major buyer of SA chrome, iron and other primary commodities. Because of this history and Japan’s alliance with the US, the ANC establishment feels fundamentally uneasy with Japan.  

As far as the G7 summit and SA’s relationship with the most industrialised countries in the world is concerned, the ANC is prioritising its ideological preference over SA’s trade and commercial interests. This is a mistake given that commercial interests are what will directly promote job creation and economic growth. It seems political, ideological and security considerations will always triumph over economic concerns.  

Looking beyond the G7, where SA will perhaps no longer be a regular guest in the future, Pretoria should cut its losses and focus its attention on the Group of 20 (G20), where India holds the rotating chair in 2023. In an era where the global order is in flux and there is a new cold war brewing between China and Russia on the one side against the US-led West on the other, SA and the ANC administration is anyhow more at home ideologically with India and the Global South than trying to dance to the tunes of G7 industrialised countries.   

As G20 chair India began the year in January with a Voice of the Global South Summit including 120 invited countries, though not China. In March New Delhi followed up with the Raisina Dialogue, where Asian and Western statesmen and experts exchanged views on geopolitics. Indian experts pressed home the point that as the West focuses all its attention on the Ukraine war, developing countries are suffering due to rising food and energy prices. 

Make no mistake, China remains the most significant and influential power in the Global South. The successful mediation effort between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March is testament to Beijing’s growing clout. However, New Delhi is working hard to catch up and it is gaining ground rapidly as it champions concerns of the Global South. That New Delhi does not have a confrontational relationship with the West and has a longer standing relationship with African countries means it can play a more useful leadership role in the Global South when bargaining with the industrialised North.  

I am  under no illusion that the ANC is an efficient organisation that is working to better the lives of South Africans. It is clearly a mismanaged organisation. As far as managing SA’s international relations are concerned, it is fine for foreign policy to continue to agitate for the interests of the Global South. However, this needs to be tempered by SA’s commercial interests, since over-zealous confrontation with the West can lead to repercussions for SA’s trading interests.

India appears to be balancing ideology and commercial interests well, and we should take a leaf from its playbook.  

• Dr Kuo is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.