Imagine the scene: President John Steenhuisen takes the oath of office at the head of a crime-fighting, corruption-busting, economy-growing alliance after the 2024 election. And within days the sagacity of the title of the book Marriages of Inconvenience, edited by my colleague Susan Booysen, hits home.
Experience of coalitions in local government has resulted in two tendencies in SA. The first, embodied by the DA, is that the way to wrest power from the ANC — even when the latter has the largest share of the votes and seats — is to cobble together an alliance of other minority parties. It is therefore in its interest to laud the virtues of coalition politics.
The other tendency is for South Africans to increasingly become frustrated with the shenanigans of all parties and to either stay away from the polls completely, support independent candidates, or wish for one clear winner to emerge in the elections — be it at local, provincial or national level.
Hung councils at local government level, which have necessitated coalitions, have increased from 29 in 2000 to 37 in 2016 and 80 in the most recent 2021 local government elections. While that represents only a third of the 257 municipalities, it does indicate that SA is at an inflection point, with the Mapungubwe Institute’s Joel Netshitenzhe asking whether the instability, dysfunctionality and collapse among them is “a harbinger of things to come”.
Where the ANC is governing in hung councils it does so through a variety of alliances, including with civic movements. Thus, in Mpumalanga it cogoverns in two out of three hung councils; in North West it cogoverns three out of four hung councils; in the Free State it cogoverns three out of four hung councils; in Limpopo it governs Thabazimbi with the support of the Thabazimbi Residents’ Association, while in Modimolle-Mookgophong there is a stalemate.
In the Northern Cape the ANC cogoverns nine out of 11 hung councils; in the Eastern Cape it cogoverns three out of four hung councils; in the Western Cape seven out of 18 hung councils, and in Gauteng eight out of 11 hung municipalities. In KwaZulu-Natal the ANC cogoverns seven out of 25 hung municipalities with the NFP, Al Jamah and Apemo.
Instead of a broad, vague description of the type of pact it wishes for, the ANC’s recently released guidelines on coalitions set out its approach. These include:
- The party with most votes should lead the coalition in municipalities, with executive positions allocated in proportion to votes obtained;
- Where no party has a clear majority, the executive system should be introduced using section 12 notices, a power of the provincial co-operative government & traditional affairs MECs allowing for greater collective responsibility;
- The ANC will prioritise working with parties, community-based organisations, service delivery forums and independent candidates committed to stability, social justice and ending apartheid legacies;
- It commits to not forming a coalition for the sake of ganging up against other parties; and
- Much attention has been paid to the ANC being committed not to preclude the possibility of working with any party in a coalition so long as it is in the public interest.
However, there will undoubtedly be a different dynamic when we turn our attention to the 2024 national and provincial elections. While the DA tries to marshal its “moon shot pact”, there has been intense debate within and outside the ANC over its approach.
It usually starts off with the observation that a coalition assumes the ANC will garner less than 50% of the votes. If it does, options have included putting together a government of national unity such as that led by former president Nelson Mandela, or a “grand coalition” similar to that in Germany, where the major parties agree to collaborate and govern.
If that fails we could well herald the President Steenhuisen era based on a coalition of minorities, with all the fragilities evident at local government level.
• Abba Omar is director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute.
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