It has been a tough few weeks at the coalface for SA climate activists, with refusals by Thungela and Exxaro to table shareholder-proposed climate lobbying resolutions and disappointing turnarounds on fossil-fuel lending reported by Nedbank, Absa and Standard Bank.
These disappointing local outcomes, which resulted in climate change poster-child and former Greenpeace head Kumi Naidoo being ejected from Standard Bank’s AGM last week, are representative of the stubborn dependency of global markets on fossil fuels for our primary energy generation.
Coupled with this is the intractable growth in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, with coal and gas emissions now at a record high due largely to the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Between coal and gas it is clear where the greater of the two evils lies. Complements of a wave of global gas-to-coal switching triggered by the global energy crisis, CO2 emissions from coal now far exceed the last decade’s average growth rate, with the biggest sectoral increase in emissions last year coming from coal-fired electricity and heat generation.
In SA, the record coal prices resulting from this coal switch delivered a headline earnings rise of almost 100% to the likes of Thungela, presumably much to the delight of energy minister Gwede Mantashe, who told the Africa Energy Indaba in March that “coal will be with us for many years to come ... those who see it as a road to corruption will be disappointed for many years. Coal is going to outlive many of us.”
Expanded production
But the writing is on the wall. It was found in the International Energy Association’s recent CO2 Emissions in 2022 report, which provides a complete picture of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, that renewable energy met 90% of last year’s global growth in electricity generation, with solar PV and wind generation each increasing about 275 terawatt hours. That is a new annual record and an excellent backdrop to the Net-Zero Mining dialogue at this week’s Mining Indaba.
The dialogue was hosted by speakers from Anglo American and The Carbon Trust, in which they discussed the future of mining beyond coal. Their presentations referenced their joint “Net-Zero Roadmap to 2050” report that they co-produced with the IFC, which identifies 17 energy transition metals that will require significantly expanded production to meet global net-zero emissions goals by 2050 and in effect send coal the way of the dodo.
For example, copper supply will need to rise 230% to meet demand, whereas nickel will need to increase supply 300%. This in itself poses concern, not least about emissions associated with the mining, milling, smelting and refining of these metals. Emissions have be cut 90% to remain within the global carbon budget.
This producers intend to achieve through the after waves of technology deployment:
- Renewable energy, site operational energy efficiency improvements and process optimisation.
- Zero-emissions haulage trucks.
- Process heat electrification and green hydrogen.
The report also addresses additional challenges due to increased land use and water and biodiversity impacts, and offers a range of additional solutions already being trialled in the sector to reduce negative environmental fallout and improve social inclusion through cross-industry collaborations aimed at unlocking opportunities to invest in technology innovation.
Of course, companies such as Anglo and BHP would have a game plan for after they demerged their coal assets to form Thungela and South32. It is increasingly becoming clear that this game plan is to drop coal assets, which will soon be stranded, and repurpose their operations to meet the demands of a new energy paradigm.
The environmental activists who have had their noses bloodied in the past few weeks will undoubtedly need to keep a watchful eye on the rollout of this new mining agenda, but I for one would prefer to take my chances with these new potential pitfalls over the surety of climate collapse.
• Maguire is carbon project manager at Climate Neutral Group SA. He writes in his personal capacity.
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