The last two months have delivered two promising developments for the just energy transition as well as for Sasol’s newfound green energy ambitions.
June saw a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) development agreement being signed between Sasol and Deutsche Aircraft, followed by a SAF development agreement in July between Sasol and Danish decarbonisation technology company Topsoe.
While the Topsoe joint venture is little for South Africans to get excited about, with the envisaged projects being developed in Europe and North America, the Deutsche Aircraft agreement signed at the Paris Air Show aims to use existing domestic Fischer-Tropsch technologies for green hydrogen-based SAF production.
This presents a significant commercial opportunity for Sasol as its expertise in Fischer-Tropsch tech ranks among the best in the world and the demand for SAF globally is starting to pick up.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has developed a plan for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 for the global air transport industry. The plan relies heavily on ramping up SAF production from 100-million litres today to at least 449-billion litres in 2050.
Given that SAF on the international market routinely trades at a 300% premium to conventional jet fuel and delivers 75% to 84% lower carbon emissions compared to conventional aviation fuels, this can be a win for both commerce and the climate.
The one fly in the ointment, however, is that the SA project aims to use carbon from direct air capture in the process, which does not bode well for the fuel’s cost competitiveness. It also does nothing to realise the important ancillary benefit of improved water security that would be achieved if Sasol were to adopt the long advocated biogenic feedstock route, primarily drawing on SA’s vast supply of invasive alien plant (IAP) species, which along with garden waste are potentially the largest available lignocellulosic feedstocks in the country.
This feedstock could be converted to an estimated 1.8-billion to three-billion litres of SAF annually using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis for at least the next 20 years, according to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).
Having worked on an IAP-to-SAF programme myself when I was in government, I am acutely aware of the multiple benefits to be derived from pursuing such a strategy. It was not for nothing that the Western Cape government identified clearing IAPs from its catchments as by far the most cost-effective way to deal with Cape Town’s Day Zero.
Water-stressed country
The importance of this cannot be stressed enough. As a water-stressed country that has already allocated 98% of all available water resources and which projects a 17% deficit by 2030 thanks to the shift towards a hotter and drier future climate, we must do everything in our power to maintain our water resources.
SA relies on 22 strategic water source areas in five provinces to provide water for 60% of the population, support 67% of national economic activity and supply 70% of irrigation water. Only 8% of our land provides us with 50% of our surface run-off.
A 2018 report from the Water Research Commission that assessed the effect of the wattle, pine and eucalyptus species found that they reduce run-off in excess of the water requirement for the eThekwini metro, even though these species only represent 20% of total invasions. What is worse is that the extent of alien plant invasions is still increasing at 5%-10% a year.
Having snubbed IAP-to-SAF project proposals in the past, Sasol must be encouraged to step up on this agenda, especially after a lukewarm appearance at the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Roadmap workshop hosted by the department of transport in Johannesburg in June.
If they had been better represented, perhaps the message that accessing global climate finance for IAP clearance, co-ordinating government clearing programmes and establishing incentives for private landowners to participate in invasive plant-based supply chains will have been identified as key opportunities for a strategically aligned SAF sector.
• Maguire is carbon project manager at Climate Neutral Group SA. He writes in his personal capacity.
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