It seems it’s conspiracy season, with some Springbok fans choosing to see a cunning plan behind the decision to leave out three injured players when the Rugby World Cup squad was named this week. But none of it makes sense.
Rather, if the Bok brains trust of Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber can be accused of anything, it is that in leaving out Handré Pollard, Lukhanyo Am and Lood de Jager they have debunked the myth that the only thing humans learns from history is that humans don’t learn from history.
If the conspiracy theories are to be believed, Pollard is in fact still going to the World Cup. Of course, he may well do. Lest it has been forgotten, one of the heroes of the 1995 World Cup triumph, Chester Williams, was not part of the initial selection. He was left out because of a hamstring injury.
As it turned out, Williams recovered on the eve of the tournament, but only got added to the squad when the infamous Battle of Boet Erasmus against Canada saw some players drop out. The way the tournament regulations stand, it will require an injury for Pollard, who has only just started training again after a long layoff, to be part of Rugby World Cup 2023.
But history reflects that injuries do happen, and the Boks have two tough warm-up games to play against Wales and New Zealand before they get to the opening game against Scotland.
Nienaber, unclear about whether Pollard will be ready, is prepared to gamble on there being a gap created by injury if Pollard does recover.
He cannot bank on Pollard. He hopes he might be ready to possibly play a role should there be an injury, but that’s very different to the conspiracy theory that the Boks have selected a player to the squad who will be primed to feign an injury. What Nienaber doesn’t want to do is repeat the mistake made by Peter de Villiers in 2011 when he took too many players carrying niggles to the World Cup in New Zealand.
Nienaber and Erasmus were part of De Villiers’ management as defence coach and technical director respectively, and they haven’t forgotten the frustration they felt when the team was prevented from training properly because of the number of walking wounded. At times there were almost as many players being nursed on the sidelines as there were training.
It did undermine the Bok defence of the trophy they won in 2007, and their tournament ended in the quarterfinal phase. Nienaber doesn’t want that to happen. Pollard is not fit, and that is evident from the fact that he’s only now starting to train again. The other two are also not ready to play, and if you look at the history, where too many World Cup winners from 2007 were passengers in 2011, it is right that the same mistake is not repeated.
Endgame?
Usually when you are confronted with a conspiracy theory, you ask what the endgame is. In the case of the conspiracy theories doing the rounds about the injured Bok trio, you surely have to wonder at the process. Why would Nienaber exclude Pollard if he knows he’s going to be fit and be able to play? Surely it would then just be easier to include him and not put some other player through the process of being part of the announcement and all the fanfare that goes with it if he is not going to take part?
While Nienaber did have a point when he pointed out that the Boks have got by without Pollard since this time last year, it is understandable why there is so much consternation about his absence. For my money, the Boks’ chances of winning the World Cup dropped by 15%-20% when he wasn’t among the group unveiled on Tuesday.
It all comes down to experience and what is required to win a World Cup. Erasmus himself has consistently pointed out the importance of having an experienced player in the pivot position. History shows that teams who have a flyhalf with just seven or eight international caps to his name tend not to win World Cups, where the pressure is at another level.
Which is why, considering the Boks are taking four scrumhalves, there should be more surprise at Elton Jantjies’ exclusion rather than at the decision not to include a player who is not fully fit.
We all know Jantjies has allegedly been a naughty boy off the field, but he has played 46 times for his country. There’s been a lot of investment in him since Erasmus and Nienaber took over from Allister Coetzee. He’s had some bad days but also some good ones in the green and gold, and he has kicked pressure kicks to win important games.
If Pollard does not make a full recovery in time to come into the squad, I’d want Jantjies to be there as an option should there be an injury during the tournament.
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