Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi established himself as the kingmaker at the G20 summit that concluded over the weekend.
Two events of significance occurred in New Delhi. First, the AU, like the EU, has now been welcomed as a permanent member of the new G21. Second, and far more subtly, Ukraine has slid down the priority list for the US-led Western member countries.
Indian external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and his team reportedly held 300 bilateral meetings and went through 15 drafts to reach consensus on the final wording of the leaders’ declaration regarding the war in Ukraine. This was no mean feat given the adamant positions held by Russia and China on the one side, and the US-led West on the other.
At the G20 Bali summit a year ago the wording was “... deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine”. On Sunday, the wording in the declaration was: “all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state. The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.”
At one level, summit declarations are much ado about nothing. After all, deploring the war in the strongest terms a year ago made absolutely no material difference to the war in Europe. The toned-down declaration this year will also make no material difference.
However, as has been pointed out by Guardian diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour, that the US was willing to agree to the toned-down language signals that the Biden administration is willing to concede to Modi’s need for a neutral declaration. It was therefore a diplomatic victory for India, granted in exchange for its future co-operation on containing China in the Indo-Pacific.
For the US, containing China is the top international relations priority, not keeping Russia in check. For Washington, China poses the most significant security and economic threat as it now leads the US in numerous significant technological fields, including artificial intelligence and electric vehicles. Given the prickly relationship between India and China, the Himalayan border dispute and the jostling for unofficial leadership of the developing world, India is a natural ally for the US to contain China.
Furthermore, US presidential elections are coming around in 2024. For Joe Biden to win what will be a tough campaign against Donald Trump — the likely Republican candidate — Biden needs to return to a focused message that he is tough on China. The drawn-out war in Ukraine is unlikely to be a priority for American voters in next year’s presidential elections.
It’s easy for armchair commentators to point out the shortcomings of the AU, which hasn’t done much more than issue statements and suspend the membership of Gabon and Niger after their military coups in August. Presumably there has been frantic diplomatic activity in the background, but the fact that coups appear to be becoming popular again does not bode well for African security and development.
In the context of superpower rivalries and India playing kingmaker over the weekend, we can see how relatively insignificant and powerless African countries are on the world’s stage. Standing together, the 55 AU members do have some clout though, and the AU’s membership of the G21 should give it a stronger voice with developed countries to advocate for the African agenda. For the AU it is ultimately economic, human and infrastructure development.
As is the case with the expanded Brics bloc, SA has traded in the right to say it stands up and speaks for Africa. What Pretoria needs to be mindful of in the G20, Brics+ and other international forums is the prickly relationship between China and India and the complicated trilateral relationship between the US, India and China.
• Dr Kuo is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.
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