The unfolding humanitarian crisis across the Sahel depicts one of the great international oversights of our time. For people living in this semi-arid belt, spanning the latitude of the African continent running just below the Sahara desert, chaos is the only accurate descriptor for daily life.
The latest spate of coups in the region illustrates an interesting political case study about those states: while they enjoy legitimacy in forums, such as the UN and AU, they do not exercise any real authority at home. But the problem is not academic — it is real, and this state of affairs cannot persist for the long term. Without a concerted multilateral peacekeeping effort, there is a possibility that the region will collapse in on itself.
Should the AU, Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) and UN fail to intervene through peacekeeping missions, the consequence of multistate failure (and the mass displacement of people that will surely follow) would be felt as much in Europe and the Middle East as it would in Africa.
Today, much of the G5 Sahel, a regional bloc with a land mass about the size of the EU and Turkey combined, exists in a reality defined not by governmental authority delineated within lines on a map, but by which militia happens to control any particular town or village. In this reality, armed gunmen carry out raids on civilian populations and frequently clash with government forces; violent death is a way of life.
In Burkina Faso the government lacks control over about 40% of the country. Power lies in the hands of extremist militias that exercise authority in two dozen towns, controlling the lives of 1-million people. The country’s military junta can only look on from its fortress in Ouagadougou, the country’s capital, which will soon find itself on the front line of the country’s war with itself.
Wagner
In the midst of this chaos Russian mercenary outfits (chief among them the Wagner Group) and other private military companies exchange their lethal services for African riches. In Burkina Faso and neighbouring Mali Wagner maintains concessions in coffee, cocoa and logistics worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Moving east along the belt, in Sudan through various proxies Russia has smuggled tonnes of illicit gold out of the country to bankroll its “fortress economy”, helping it evade Western sanctions.
On his recent trip to the continent, UK foreign secretary James Cleverly opined that groups like Wagner can ply their trade because of a perceived “unfilled need” — presumably the need for local governments to enforce their rule (and secure their assets). The absence of security and order is not just felt by local African leaders; it is also felt by the powers that stand to lose as much as they stand to gain.
Two weeks ago, while Gabon was experiencing its palace coup, China’s defence ministry welcomed 50 African states to its Global Security Conference — part of President Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative (GSI). The GSI maps Beijing’s policy principles for “managing conflicts and keeping the world at peace.” Considering China’s assets on the continent, securing African states is a priority for Beijing (and a costly one at that).
The scale of the crisis engulfing the Sahel is not going to end any time soon. On the contrary, insecurity is likely to be felt more acutely as populations grow and the effects of climate change intensify. Displacement and migration from the region will first be felt in West African states like Nigeria, Senegal and Ghana, which will in turn put those governments under more pressure.
Earlier this year, in a xenophobic rant, Tunisian President Kais Saied accused migrants from south of the Sahara of “violence, crime, and unacceptable practices”. Responses like this will become more pronounced over time. Multilateral bodies must look to restore order, lest the cynics continue to take advantage of the chaos that endures.
• Nott (@TheAfricaBrief) works for a venture facility for public benefit and is based in London. He writes in his personal capacity.
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