Dateline: September 27 2027
Solar power has been the poster child for the renewable energy industry for the past two decades. Costs have declined by 90%, efficiencies have almost doubled, and utility scale as well as rooftop installations have surged worldwide. But it seems that solar’s day in the sun is fading fast.
The reason can be summed up in two words: renewable and sustainable. Though energy from sunlight is infinitely renewable on a daily basis, solar panels are not, and degrade over time, eventually needing to be replaced. Add to that the hundreds of thousands of panels that have effectively been destroyed by hailstorms, tornadoes and accidents and you have a huge waste disposal problem. Recycling old panels just isn’t feasible, because, you know, money.
As for being sustainable, almost all silicon solar panels these days are made in China, using mainly fossil fuels for production and shipping. To say nothing of the toxic chemicals involved, or the effect of mining for metals and minerals essential to high-grade photovoltaics. Solar power may be clean, but its supply chain is anything but.
To make matters worse, lithium batteries for solar storage and electric cars have an even shorter life than panels, with similar recycling problems and a much bigger eco footprint on the production side. Disposal of dead batteries is becoming a costly nightmare for renewables companies as environmental legislation bites. Battery producers are obliged to take back expired units, increasing the levelised cost of battery storage for new projects. And shipping heavy batteries uses a lot of diesel.
Don’t get me wrong; solar panels and lithium batteries have revolutionised the energy sector, powering microgrids and enabling an “energy internet” of distributed power producers and consumers. Just don’t call them renewables. That’s a dirty word. /First published in Mindbullets on September 21 2023
Solar panels are the new plastic bottles
Discarded solar panels are piling up in all sorts of unwanted places, not just e-waste dumps and landfills
Dateline: October 14 2038
The great thing about rooftop solar panels is that they don’t require much maintenance, and give us “free” electricity for about 25 years. The not-so-great thing about solar panels is that after 25 years, what do you do with them?
In the frenzy that followed Greta Thunberg’s assault on the establishment in 2019, and the global investment revolt against dirty power, solar panel installations rose exponentially, even as panel prices plummeted. And the vast majority of rooftop systems were cheap Chinese-made poly crystalline panels.
Now barely 20 years later, the shine is beginning to wear off, as power outputs drop and cells wear out. Companies such as Tesla have reassured consumers, and will even take back panels if residents no longer want them, or replace them at nominal cost for fresh ones. But those old panels still have to go somewhere and be dealt with.
Add to that the increasing number of solar modules that have been damaged or partly destroyed by hurricanes, tornadoes and tsunamis. Broken panels are not only electrically hazardous, they can leak toxic materials and heavy metals into the environment. E-waste depots are already overflowing with dead batteries. Recycling costs more than the economic value of the materials recovered.
Tesla’s iconic solar roof tiles are a better bet, as they continue to function as roof tiles, long after their power output has dimmed. Which is fine if you live in the US, where they’re popular, and not in India or China, the biggest source of discarded panels, where they’re virtually unknown.
Recycling modules from the early days of the solar revolution is also problematic — the materials and chemicals you can harvest from them are of little use; the technology has advanced, and the latest panels are entirely different. But at least they should last beyond 40 years.
With little incentive to recycle, a cut-throat industry and increasing consumer expectations for free energy, it’s no wonder that solar installers and facilities managers are cutting corners on the environment. Discarded solar panels are turning up everywhere, even in the deep ocean. Just like plastic. /First published in Mindbullets on October 17 2019
• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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