We received comprehensive data this week about SA’s winter crop conditions, for the first time since the devastating floods in the Western Cape in September 2023. The province is a significant producer of winter crops, accounting for about two-thirds of SA’s total winter crop output. I was concerned that the damage caused by the floods would have a notable effect on national production.
However, the data paints a comforting picture. Its third production estimates for winter crops, the committee lifted the wheat harvest projection by 2% from September to 2.17-million tonnes. The current expected crop is up 3% from the previous season. This was a positive surprise as we had expected the crop size could be lowered, considering the severity of the floods in the southern regions of the Western Cape.
The provinces behind this robust national wheat harvest forecast are the Western Cape (53% of the overall harvest), Northern Cape, Free State and Limpopo. Admittedly, while the Northern Cape and Free State are still among the leading wheat producers, their expected harvest is less than the 2022/23 season. The expected large harvest in the Western Cape and Limpopo overshadows the decline in other provinces. There are also likely to be decent wheat harvests in other provinces, such as KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and North West.
Notably, the expected 2.17-million tonnes is well above the 10-year average harvest of 1.8-million tonnes. If there are no significant changes in the forecast in the coming months one can be confident that SA needs to import only about 1.6-million tonnes to meet domestic consumption in the 2023/24 season, down from 1.7-million tonnes in 2022/23.
Barley and oats
Furthermore, the expected 2023/24 canola crop was lifted by 3% from the previous month to a record 237,450 tonnes, up 13% year on year. The annual increase is also due to increased plantings and better expected yields. Regarding barley and oats, however, the committee lowered its production forecasts 3% and 19% to 380,120 tonnes and 41,600 tonnes, respectively. It appears that the floods damaged these crops more than wheat and canola. Still, barley and oats are well above the 2022/23 harvest level, mainly supported by an expansion in the planted area and anticipated better yields in some regions.
As encouraging as the overall winter crop picture is, concerns remain about the quality of the crop, particularly wheat. Given that the Western Cape accounts for more than half of SA’s wheat production, if the quality has deteriorated notably the expected import figure of 1.6-million tonnes may need to be revised.
Still, it is too early to formulate a strong view. It will be some time before we shall start having a better sense, when farmers start harvesting. For now one could consider this as a potential downside risk. The available data shows that the harvest is in good shape and the floods had minimal impact on the winter crops.
Beyond the crops, there has been significant damage in the southern regions of the Western Cape to infrastructure that is vital for storing and transporting agricultural products to market. This includes the road networks, storage facilities and electricity infrastructure. But some of this is already being rebuilt as communities recover. The fruit and wine grape-producing regions are among the areas that have reported such damage over a number of weeks and are now rebuilding.
Overall, while the flood has left damage across various communities, and many businesses will need time to recover fully, one positive aspect is that the winter crops remain in reasonably good shape. Additionally, dams across the Western Cape are full, which will help irrigate the horticulture fields in the coming summer months.
• Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and author of ‘A Country of Two Agricultures’, is senior fellow at Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.