Rising xenophobic sentiment and violence prevented Census 2022 from arriving at an accurate estimate of the number of international migrants in SA.
But Stats SA’s analysis of the proportions of top labour-sending countries is probably much closer to the truth and confirms two things that we already knew. First, the collapse of the Zimbabwean economy has been the number one driver of international migration to SA over the past two decades. Second, four countries — Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Lesotho and Malawi — accounted for 76.7% of all international migrants in SA.
As Jonathan Crush and others wrote in a 2005 paper, SA has a long history of intraregional migration that dates back to the mid-19th century after the discovery of the Kimberley diamond fields. “Migration was probably the single most important factor tying together all the various colonies and countries of the subcontinent into a single regional labour market during the 20th century.”
For more than a century, Mozambique and Lesotho were the largest labour-sending countries in the region.
Census 2001 showed a small increase in the percentage of international migrants in SA — to 2.3% of the population from 2% in 1996. People from Southern African Development Community (Sadc) countries accounted for 67% of the 1-million international migrants who were then living in SA. The 2001 census did not provide a breakdown of migrants from Sadc countries.
Census 2011 showed that the number of international migrants had more than doubled to 2.2-million people, or 4.2% of the population. There were 672,308 Zimbabweans in SA, who accounted for 30.8% of all international migrants.
In response to fake news peddled by xenophobic organisations and politicians, statistician-general Risenga Maluleke released a statement in August 2021 which said there were 3.9-million international migrants in SA, equivalent to 6.6% of the population.
But Census 2022 said there were only 2.4-million international migrants. This was 1.5-million people lower than the 2021 estimate. From 2011 to 2022, the number of international migrants increased by only 233,789, equivalent to 2.3% of the 10.3-million increase in SA’s population to 62-million. The percentage of international migrants declined to 3.9% of the population from 4.2%. Many South Africans will find it difficult to believe such statistics. However, the UN has estimated that the number of international migrants in SA declined to 2.9-million in 2020 from 3.2-million in 2015.
Diego Iturralde, Stats SA’s chief director of population statistics, provides two reasons for the estimate of international migrants being lower than expected. The census happened at a time when the country had just come out of Covid-19 restrictions on mobility. At the time, there was also a lot of anti-migrant sentiment, which included the targeting of foreign truck drivers. “We share your concern about migrant numbers but we do not feel this is due to them being mainly missed out but rather that foreign nationals may have reported themselves as South African-born.”
Census 2022 says the top four labour-sending countries were: Zimbabwe with 1-million (41.8% of all international migrants), Mozambique with 416,564 (17.2%), Lesotho with 227,770 (9.5%) and Malawi with 198,807 (8.2%). International migrants from these four countries increased by 542,249 to 1.9-million, with Zimbabweans accounting for 339,351 people, or 62.6% of the total. This means that international migrants from other countries declined by 308,460 people.
International migration is a function of unbalanced economic development in a region. SA’s dismal economic performance, especially since the global financial crisis of 2008, has had negative spillover effects. SA must revive its economy and play a bigger role in helping to achieve peace and security in the region and accelerating integration. Stats SA must also provide more comprehensive and frequent statistics on international migration so that we can counter fake news and xenophobia and develop better policies to manage migration flows in the region.
Correction: November 14 2023
The story has been corrected to reflect a figure of 198,807 Malawians in the second last paragraph, not 98,807.
• Gqubule is research associate at the Social Policy Initiative
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