Watching the governing party celebrating the Shosholoza Meyl’s first voyage since the service collapsed — getting passengers 97% of the way to Cape Town before succumbing to cable theft in Wellington — was peak SA in 2023.
The incompetence, arrogance and corruption emanating from the ANC are not sporadic glitches but a staggeringly consistent feature. The very foundations of our hard-won democracy appear to be crumbling, and as I labour in the hum of my gas-generator-powered refuge, pockmarked with the doorbell sounding a stream of desperate South Africans begging for a morsel to eke out an existence for one more day, I can't help but reflect on the collective descent into the abyss we are experiencing.
President Cyril Ramaphosa, once seen as a beacon of hope, earns the dubious honour of Underperformer of the Year. His leadership, far from resolute, has become synonymous with stagnation and indecisiveness. He has allowed his political enemies space and time to regather. Even party veterans are abandoning ship publicly, with Mavuso Msimang’s departure angrily referred to as “de-campaigning” by “Mr Fixfokol” Mbalula, while behind the scenes he’s implored to reconsider.
The decline is encapsulated in all manner of metrics, from 31.9% unemployment to 0.3% GDP growth and the Mafube municipality in the Free State unable able to pay its workers’ salaries for December, January and February.
But I follow mergers & acquisitions (M&A) activity, typically robust during challenging times, which paints a disturbing picture. Deal activity has plummeted, with a 26% year-on-year drop and a staggering 40% decline from the same period in 2021. Private equity, a key driver of a dynamic market, has suffered a 36% year-on-year contraction, signalling a deeper malaise in deal making.
The JSE faces a daunting challenge. Over the past two decades the number of listings has halved, dropping from 616 in 2000 to just less than 300 in 2023. A confluence of factors, partly including a negative global macroeconomic environment but more tellingly a lack of local economic growth and onerous listing standards, has led to a decline in foreign investment and an alarming increase in delistings.
The departure of companies from the JSE, the continent’s largest stock market, raises concerns. Over the past six years an average of 25 firms have delisted each year, with 19 firms delisting by the end of September and another five expected to follow suit by year end.
The JSE’s announced plan to rewrite its listing requirements in plain English is a welcome effort to streamline processes and eliminate red tape but has been met with scepticism by the market commentators I speak to daily. While the recent changes, including the introduction of dual-class share structures and a reduction in free float, are aimed at enticing new entries, they seem more tailored to attracting initial public offerings than addressing the concerns of existing issuers.
As the exodus from the JSE continues, the urgency of the situation demands more than linguistic simplification — it requires a comprehensive strategy to restore the exchange’s appeal, but beyond that we need to stimulate economic growth.
As the misgoverning party fumbles with its foreign policy stance, the effect on investment and economic outcomes becomes increasingly clear.
Sébastien de Place, president of French Foreign Trade Advisors in SA and a partner at Mazars, was quoted in the media in the past week saying: “French companies chose to hold off on committing to additional investments at the 2023 SA Investment Conference as business leaders are eager to see material improvements around energy stability, logistics efficiencies, port competitiveness, anti-corruption measures, and an improved investor visa application process.”
Despite investor interest and a robust project pipeline, investors are adopting a cautious “wait and see” approach, influenced almost entirely by a president who is unable to impose his reform agenda on a divided party.
The ANC’s governance failures and the JSE's struggle for relevance intertwine in this web of challenges, forming a narrative of a nation grappling with internal strife and external uncertainties. The road ahead demands not just introspection but decisive action to steer SA away from the abyss and towards a path of renewal and prosperity.
Amid the prevailing gloom one can’t help but ask: “Where is the hope to come from?” Roger Jardine — an astute businessman but with little broad appeal or profile — needs to step into the light. The man from Riverlea officially tossed his hat into the ring on Sunday. The time for enigmatic figures is over; action is desperately needed.
The MD of Volkswagen has to spell out the obvious — a dire state of affairs when basic truths require reinforcement from unexpected quarters. “We are going backwards as a nation,” a sentiment echoing through the minds of many who witness the daily erosion of progress and prosperity.
The DA’s focus on challenging the police ministry’s assistant for potential financial missteps amid the backdrop of national decay feels like rearranging deck chairs on a sinking ship. I’d love to end the year with a message of hope. But hope is the refuge of the complacent.
We must act on our one chance in 2024, collectively, to vote the incompetents out of power and, as Bobby Godsell used to love saying, stare over the abyss once more, before pulling ourselves back from oblivion.
• Avery, a financial journalist and broadcaster, produces BDTV's ‘Business Watch’. Contact him at Badger@businesslive.co.za.
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