Over the next few weeks the resilience of critical public institutions will be in sharp focus as the political campaign season dominates the national conversation.
Institutions that have the responsibility of providing information to the public based on facts regarding the state of the nation, rather than catering to the prevailing political mood, should expect elevated levels of pressure. Those who gather and publish information that provides a snapshot of the state of the nation must resist the political hysteria that escalates ahead of elections.
For any incumbent government, campaign season comes with difficult questions regarding actual performance across many socioeconomic dimensions. Inevitably, any government or party leader worth their campaign credentials will explain the achievements and failures with an eye on convincing prospective voters that all the good stories are actually wonderful exhibits of excellence, and arenas of underperformance are minor glitches ripe for correction immediately after the elections.
In SA, access and synthesis of information varies across communities and communication platforms and languages. This escalates the risk of the same issue being dissected in many different and divergent ways, depending on the identity and motivation of the medium of articulation.
The evidence gathered by legitimate state agencies must be the public’s most credible reference point for assessing actual outcomes. Over the years institutions such as the SA Reserve Bank, Office of the Auditor-General, Stats SA and the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) have distinguished themselves through their commitment to consistency and serving the public interest mandate, regardless of the winds of political hysteria.
This means there have been no instances of such institutions arbitrarily amending their practices in response to election hysteria. The dates of publication for critical data such as unemployment figures, economic data, interest rate decisions and audit reports have not been shifted to avoid them being used as campaign tools by politicians across the spectrum.
Given how much of the data that gets published paints a picture of suboptimal government performance across multiple dimensions, it is important to ensure that such institutions retain the credibility they have built over the years.
The pressure points of 2024 are different from prior electoral cycles due to the intensified levels of contestation and the varying predictions around the fate of key provinces such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. The tendency of political campaigners to use published information as campaign tools cannot be discounted.
Debates around the actual meaning of the audit report of the Ekurhuleni metro in recent weeks are an illustration of this danger. The Reserve Bank’s decision to maintain interest rates unchanged in spite of the grumblings of politicians with long-standing grudges about the bank and its autonomy was founded on economic modelling fundamentals that are critical to its functioning.
When one considers how countries such as Turkey exert pressure on central bankers to ignore economic fundamentals if the results may lead to complicated conversations on the campaign trail, only to have to pay the price later, South Africans must acknowledge the resilience of our institutions.
The one institution facing higher levels of pressure and scrutiny this year is the IEC itself, which has to preside over the most complicated general election cycle. Its decisions are not only important for the credibility of the elections but also for the legitimacy of the democratic project.
While politicians such as Herman Mashaba as well as others in the DA and MK parties have already launched concerning broadsides about the IEC’s competence and impartiality, the institution has thus far resisted the pressure to join the political mud fight. Its legitimate call rejecting the ANC’s call for the exclusion of MK from the poll, and the decision to exclude candidates such as Jacob Zuma from the ballot based on the law, is an important step in reinforcing the integrity of its systems.
Over the next few weeks we need many more institutions to remain as steadfast in performing their public duty.
• Sithole (@coruscakhaya) is an accountant, academic and activist.
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