Watching leader of the opposition and multiparty charter (MPC) leader John Steenhuisen at the recent BizNews conference it became clear that the pre-election spin cycle is kicking into overdrive.
Steenhuisen painted a binary outcome. One, the MPC succeeds against all odds and the era of the socialists in SA ends, ushering in a wave of investment from London and elsewhere as legislation is enacted paving the way for the private sector to invest with high conviction.
The second, far more likely, option has two variants. The ANC falls well below 50% and is forced into bed with either the EFF or MK — or both — to form a government, and the concessions extracted see an acceleration of the failed state scenario. The other variant sees the ANC falling marginally below 50% and able to cobble together a collation of smaller parties to continue a slower grind towards ultimate failed statehood.
Of course, you can’t blame Steenhuisen for painting this binary doomsday scenario because after nearly two decades of load-shedding and economic mismanagement this should be his golden opportunity. It’s a theme touched on in a new book edited by Raymond Parsons, Tipping Point: Turmoil or Reform, which I was invited to help launch at Nedbank’s Sandton HQ this past week. A few of the contributing authors were hosted on a panel discussing the national question of what might transpire after May 29.
Why have opposition parties failed to capitalise on the opportunities a languishing ANC presents? Fellow Business Day columnist Anthony Butler reckons in the opening chapter that the ANC enjoys a legacy of delivery from its first two decades in power that most opposition parties do not, but he glosses over the DA’s delivery track record in the Western Cape so this analysis doesn’t cut the mustard for me.
Political analyst Ralph Mathekga cogently argues that coalitions have been coded into the system as a feature of a proportional representation party list system. And I don’t think he is wrong, but given our shambolic coalitions of the corrupt and incompetent at local government level we have clearly not developed the required political maturity to make them work effectively yet.
If one reads between the lines the fear from the MPC side is that a third scenario could emerge that will ultimately see the ANC manage to arrest its decline and climb back on its perch for another five years. I’m about as good at political forecasting as Jay Powell is at reading inflation, so take this from whence it comes but hear me out.
The problem with the binary doomsday scenario proffered by Steenhuisen and many who rightfully loathe the ANC’s descent into a party of corrupt cadres incapable of running a spaza shop is that it conveniently glosses over the fact that it will, by some margin, remain the most popular party in the country even after everything it’s managed to stuff up. That means, at this stage at least, any coalition will still have to find a way to work with it and convince its alliance partners that much-needed reforms to labour markets and the like are in all of our best interests. Can you imagine dismantling our disastrous labour laws now, without the influence the ANC wields among its labour allies? Good luck with that.
Another critical element glossed over by the binary narrative is that it is entirely possible that if the ANC somehow manages to secure close to 50% of the vote and cobble together a rats-and-mice majority, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reforms will somehow be allowed to take root. Make no mistake, while he has been slow, often because he’s been trying to outmanoeuvre internal resistance, he has made progress on some major economic reforms that are taking shape in the form of legislation and regulations, which, if given another five years, could unleash a wave of economic growth as has never seen before in our history, democratic or otherwise.
The Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill has been hailed as the single biggest reform to our electricity market since the formation of Eskom in 1923. Transnet CEO Michelle Phillips has recognised the initial unfavourable response to a newly proposed tariff methodology that was released for public feedback by the interim infrastructure manager together with the country’s first draft network statement. This statement will regulate access to the railway network for all train operators, including Transnet Freight Rail and private companies. But rail reforms are moving faster than they have for some years now.
The passing of the Public Service Amendment Bill in one of the houses of parliament is arguably the most important reform of them all, as it seeks to depoliticise the appointment of civil servants, which became endemic under the Public Service Act of 1994, one of the ANC’s first pieces of legislation, passed even before the new constitution was ratified.
The question voters have to ask themselves before voting on May 29 is whether it’s wise to force the ANC into the arms of the radical EFF and MK parties. The likely outcome would be the removal of Ramaphosa and the immediate reversal of many of these reforms. The polls don’t give the MPC a realistic shot to unseat the ANC just yet, and it seems the market would rather settle for the devil it knows ... until 2029, perhaps.
• Avery, a financial journalist and broadcaster, produces BDTV’s ‘Business Watch’. Contact him at badger@businesslive.co.za.
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